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Palantir cofounder Cohen sells over 20% of his stake in planned sale

Palantir cofounder and director Stephen Cohen sold shares worth more than $310 million over three days last week, as part of a trading plan adopted in December.

Matt Phillips

After a couple days of solid gains, Palantir is once again among the large-cap laggards putting downward pressure on the blue-chip S&P 500 index Tuesday.

There’s little fundamental news on the stock, though eagle-eyed equity analyst Brent Thill over at Jefferies spotlights more selling of the stock by company insiders. (Thill was one of the first to take note of a surge of selling by cofounder and CEO Alex Karp over the past year that reduced his holdings in the data analytics software company by 20%.)

Not to be outdone, Stephen Cohen, Palantir cofounder as well as president, secretary, and board member, sold more than 20% of his stake in the company over three days last week, according to Thill:

“We highlight a resumption of PLTR’s insider selling via Rule 10b5-1 trading plans in 2025, with co-founder and President Stephen Cohen selling $310M worth of shares over the last few days (~23% of his overall stake in PLTR).”

To be sure, the company signaled that some selling could be coming, writing in its annual report that Cohen had established new trading plans that would allow him to sell more than 4 million shares through September, without running afoul of Rule 10b5-1, the SEC rule on insider trading. (Karp also disclosed new stock-selling plans.)

Cohen’s sales last week represented the exercise of options for 3.75 million shares, which he immediately sold.

What’s to be made of all this selling? As we’ve said before, there are all sorts of reasons why insiders sell. So it’s a bit of a stretch to make these sales out to be a sign of things to come for Palantir shares.

After all, Cohen also dumped nearly 4 million shares in conjunction with the company’s IPO on September 30, 2020, generating proceeds of about $38 million.

That’s not a bad day’s work. But if he’d held onto that pile of stock, it would be worth more than $330 million now. According to FactSet data, Cohen has sold stock worth more than $750 million since the company went public. Karp has sold more than $3 billion worth.

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Novo, Lilly fall after Trump says "the fat loss drug" will go down in price

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly fell in after-hours trading after President Trump told reporters on Thursday that "the fat loss drug" will go down in price.

Trump said GLP-1s like Novo's Ozempic will be less than $150 out of pocket. Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services administrator, interjected to say that those deals have not yet been finalized.

The Trump administration has been negotiating with drugmakers to bring down drug prices in the US. Currently, the popular weight loss drugs made by Lilly and Novo cost between $300 and $500 a month out of pocket through the drugmakers' direct-to-consumer platforms.

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Fedspeak in line with market’s view on rate cuts

Comments from Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller Thursday calling for another quarter-point rate cut is in line with views from both financial and prediction markets.

Since the Fed cut interest rates at its last meeting on September 17, positions taken by traders in both markets suggest increased certainty that the central bank will continue to ease at its two-day meeting later this month.

Market-implied odds derived from event contracts offered on Robinhood suggest traders see a 94% chance the central bank cuts its Fed Funds rate target by 0.25 percentage points when it announces its next decision on October 29, as of market close Thursday.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Odds implied by prices in the Fed Funds futures markets are an even higher 97%. That’s up from roughly 74% a month ago.

In comments to the National Association of Business Economists earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hit notes supportive of rate cuts.

The Fed chief — who has been the target of a public pressure campaign from President Trump to deliver lower rates — told listeners that a sharp slowdown in hiring in the US is raising worries about economic weakness at the central bank, despite the fact that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is still running nearly a full percentage point above its 2% long-term target.

“Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” Powell said.

Since the Fed cut interest rates at its last meeting on September 17, positions taken by traders in both markets suggest increased certainty that the central bank will continue to ease at its two-day meeting later this month.

Market-implied odds derived from event contracts offered on Robinhood suggest traders see a 94% chance the central bank cuts its Fed Funds rate target by 0.25 percentage points when it announces its next decision on October 29, as of market close Thursday.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Odds implied by prices in the Fed Funds futures markets are an even higher 97%. That’s up from roughly 74% a month ago.

In comments to the National Association of Business Economists earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hit notes supportive of rate cuts.

The Fed chief — who has been the target of a public pressure campaign from President Trump to deliver lower rates — told listeners that a sharp slowdown in hiring in the US is raising worries about economic weakness at the central bank, despite the fact that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is still running nearly a full percentage point above its 2% long-term target.

“Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” Powell said.

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More bad news on loans crushes US banks

Regional banks are cratering on Thursday following more news of souring loans.

Zions Bancorp tanked after announcing that it’s taking a $50 million charge-off relating to loans of more than $60 million made to investment funds that purchased distressed commercial mortgage loans. It’s suing the borrowers, alleging that their collateral was not protected in accordance with the terms of their loans. Zions said it “believes this is an isolated situation, it plans to engage counsel to coordinate an independent review.”

Western Alliance Bancorp is also facing significant selling pressure, as it made a loan with an outstanding balance of nearly $100 million to the same investment funds, which it is also suing, alleging fraud. However, Western Alliance also reaffirmed its full-year guidance while disclosing this news.

More signs of credit stress are not what the doctor ordered for financials, which were already on edge in the wake of the high-profile busts at Tricolor and First Brands. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF are poised for their biggest one-day drops since April.

Adding to the risk-off tone are indications of funding stress in interbank markets. The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has traded above the top end of the Federal Reserve’s target range for its policy rate amid anecdotal reports of elevated demand for short-term financing from regional banks. However, this also coincides with the timing of corporate tax payments and US Treasury settlements, which also act as drains on cash.

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