Markets
Palantir Shares Rise Army Maven Contract Modification
(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Palantir jumps on big expansion to federal defense contract

Matt Phillips

Shares of Palantir — a retail trader fave and top Trump stock — popped on Thursday after the US Department of Defense said it was adding nearly $800 million onto an existing $480 million contract with the company to provide the software for the Maven Smart System, an AI-driven targeting system that combines weaponry, drone, satellite, and intelligence data into the so-called “kill chain” used to make firing decisions.

The “contract modification” for $795 million is technically for additional software licenses and pushes the ceiling on the program up to nearly $1.3 billion for work that the Army expects to be completed over the next four years.

Analyst Louie DiPalma of William Blair thinks spending on the program could translate into roughly $200 million in revenue for 2025 and increase by $50 million per year for the next several years. That could help support the fast top-line growth that has made the shares a favorite of traders.

While Palantir has been building out its AI software business with corporate clients, the US government remains its single largest customer, making the defense budget a crucial focus for the company.

Rumors that President Trump’s defense department would cut expenditures by 8% cratered the stock back in February.

But such belt-tightening seems to have gone out the window, with the Republican budget bill that just passed through the House of Representatives adding $150 billion in new spending for the Pentagon. Some $25 billion of that spending is earmarked for the president’s “Golden Dome” missile defense project, which Palantir is well positioned to get a piece of as well.

More Markets

See all Markets
Luke Kawa
9h
Micron reports another stellar quarter and blowout guidance

The memory chip specialist did it again.

7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) Opens In Shanghai
Luke Kawa, Tasha Matsumoto
10h
Stocks sink as inflation fears rise

Stocks sank after a hotter-than-expected producer price index reading as well as a higher inflation forecast from the Fed amid rising energy prices.

Brown bear on a rock
10h

Hyperscalers and hard hats

If you build it, gains will come

Matt Phillips
Construction workers
Luke Kawa
12h
Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged; dot plot still signals lower rates in the cards for 2026

A relatively dovish reaction function from the US central bank.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Holds An News Conference On Interest Rates
markets
Matt Phillips

Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.
©2026 Sherwood Media, LLC