Palantir shares surge, could close at record high

It’s been a shortened week, but still a rough one for Lucid. Investor blowback to the luxury EV maker’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split has sent shares to all time lows this week.

After six straight days of closing lower, Wall Street appears to have decided enough is enough and is loading up on Lucid shares on Friday, sending them up 13% in recent trading. As of 2:10pm eastern, Lucid trading volumes were at more than 240% of their 30 day average.

Some of the move could be attributed to traders reading headlines that don’t take into consideration Lucid’s reverse split. Cantor Fitzgerald on Friday slapped a new price target on Lucid of $20, compared to its previous target of $3. Some news outlets (not us!) presented that as an increase. The problem: With the 1-for-10 reverse split in effect, a comparable price target would have been $30. The new $20 target is actually... a cut.

Momentum stocks dragged the market lower Friday, with stocks like Palantir Technologies, SoundHound AI, Rocket Lab, Robinhood Markets, and GE Vernova continuing a recent slide.

(Robinhood Markets, Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF opened 1% higher and built on those gains before reversing hard early in the session to trade 1% lower as of 11 a.m. ET.

If it closes at these levels, this fund that holds US stocks with the best risk-adjusted trailing returns will have completed a so-called “bearish engulfing candle pattern.” As the name suggests is, this is considered to be a negative technical signal that occurs when, the day after a security rises, it ends up opening above the previous day’s closing price and closes below the previous day’s opening price.

ETFs that track major US stock indexes are higher and short-term yields are falling after the August jobs report continued to confirm the trend of labor market cooling, calcifying bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.

Non-farm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, while economists had expected an addition of 75,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, in line with estimates. Revisions to the past two months were also negative, but not as severe as in the July report.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was up 0.3% to session highs in the minutes following the release, while two-year US Treasury yields fell below 3.5%.

A report and market reaction like this suggests traders are embracing the idea that the softening in the US labor market is primarily driven by supply-side factors in light of major changes to net immigration, as recently argued by economists at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and isn’t a worrying sign that the US economy is on the verge of a recession.

With revisions, June’s non-farm payroll growth is now -13,000. That’s the first month of net job losses since December 2020. And the underemployment rate (or U6, which includes the unemployed, those employed part time who want a full-time job, and those who want a job but aren’t looking for one currently) rose to 8.1%, its highest level since October 2021.

Some see this data as much more concerning than the market reaction implies.

“Since a month or two ago, policy hawks, growth bulls (I call them wrong), have been arguing two things. First, sequential growth should perk up because the weakness in the summer was all a function of uncertainty around Liberation Day. Second, focus on the ratios because the unemployment rate is still low,” Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote. “Both of these views were wrong as we now know. Employment growth is still cooling (there is no uptick in hours either) and the unemployment rate is rising. Bye Felicia!”