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Palantir’s Alex Karp
Elon Musk and Palantir CEO Alex Karp in 2023 (Shutterstock)

Palantir soars, then tumbles in flurry following Musk tweet

Shares of the defense, intelligence, and surveillance contractor with close links to the circle of influential right-wing tech billionaires surrounding Trump were the most heavily traded member of the S&P 500.

Matt Phillips

Shares of Palantir were the most heavily traded issue in the S&P 500 by midday, with roughly 115 million changing hands in a volatile session for the retail stock-trading favorite.

The stock was up more than 8% in the premarket session, attracting attention from online traders after Elon Musk spotlighted comments from Palantir CEO Alex Karp at a California defense-industry conference, the Reagan National Defense Forum, held over the weekend.

It’s unclear precisely what aspect of Karp’s comments Musk found “based,” an online term indicating something morally righteous but potentially unpopular. They included several rapid-fire asides, including an assertion that the United Nations is “basically a discriminatory institution against anything good.”

He also said that he believed part of the reason Democrats lost the recent presidential election was that “people want to live in peace. They want to go home. They do not want to hear your woke pagan ideology. They want to know they’re safe.”

At any rate, online Palantir cheerleaders clearly see the chance the prominence of billionaire tech businessmen like Musk — who spent more than $250 million to elect Trump and Republicans — could translate into more money and opportunity for companies like Palantir.

Palantir was cofounded by billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel, a former employer of incoming Vice President JD Vance and a key contributor to Vance’s political rise. (Here’s a good Washington Post piece on the connections.)

“Time to see what else Peter Thiel is backing and start buying,” one commenter wrote on a popular subreddit following Palantir shares.

Palantir has been on a tear for quite some time. The shares rose after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel led to the war in Gaza, thanks in part to the company’s close ties to the Israeli defense establishment.

After joining the S&P 500 in September, it is the best-performing stock in the index, rising more than 320% this year and overtaking previous 2024 leaders Vistra (+280%) and Nvidia (+180%).

Those gains have created enormous amounts of wealth on paper — Palantir’s market cap is now roughly $165 billion — and also made it one of the most richly valued stocks in the S&P 500, with a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 50 and a price-to-next-12-months’ earnings ratio of nearly 160.

Such nosebleed levels of valuation essentially mean the stock price is highly dependent on continued and persistent euphoria from shareholders until actual sales and profits start to show up to justify the price. And that is by no means a sure thing. Case in point, after opening up about 6%, Palantir suddenly sputtered out, and shortly after 1 p.m. was down 5% as part of a broader drubbing of momentum stocks.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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