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Kevin Warsh closeup
Kevin Warsh (Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)

President Trump names former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve

Treasury yields and the US dollar rose following reports that Warsh would be named to succeed Jerome Powell.

Luke Kawa

President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is his pick to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” he wrote. “On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down.”

Prediction markets began to price in decisive odds of a Warsh nomination shortly before 7 p.m. ET on Thursday evening. Trump said that his pick was “somebody that could have been there a few years ago,” and Warsh was the only member of the current shortlist who was among the president’s top options during the 2017 selection process.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Warsh was a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, and, if confirmed, would take up Powell’s mantle after May.

After Trump’s announcement, Senator Thom Tillis reiterated his stance that he would oppose the nomination of any official to the Federal Reserve until the Department of Justice’s investigation into Powell is “fully and transparently resolved.”

In response, Trump said at the White House on Friday that if Sen. Tillis won't allow Warsh's nomination to move forward, he will wait until Tillis is "not there," per Reuters. Tillis announced in June that he would not seek re-election and will instead retire when his current term ends in January 2027.

Warsh has argued for a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet and lower interest rates, the latter of which was highlighted by Trump as a priority for anyone who wants to get the top job at the US central bank.

Thirty-year Treasury yields rose amid reports of Warsh’s nomination, which might be linked to his views that it is inappropriate for the Federal Reserve to own so many government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, or could reflect concerns that he will aim to juice the economy in the near term via rate cuts at the expense of longer-term inflation outcomes. This continues a pattern: Treasury yields had also risen earlier this month after Trump suggested that Kevin Hassett is better served in his current position as director of the National Economic Council, which caused traders to boost bets that Warsh would ascend to the top spot. Interestingly, the US dollar rose as well, which could indicate some skepticism about whether Warsh will be able to get buy-in for more accommodative monetary policy from his counterparts at the Fed. Amid the greenback’s rally, precious metals are getting clobbered, with gold down 5% and silver off 13% as of 5:58 a.m. ET.

That being said, federal funds futures show little change in the amount of easing priced in through 2026 compared to Thursday’s close.

The nominee has his supporters from across the political spectrum: some within the Trump administration, apparently, as well as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Jason Furman, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Barack Obama.

Of course, Warsh also has his detractors, who point out that his recent dovish approach to monetary policy runs contrary to what he espoused while at the central bank.

Back in 2017, Sam Bell, who would go on to become the founder of the Employ America think tank, wrote the definitive case against Warsh’s candidacy. His track record serving as Wall Street’s unofficial watchdog while at the Fed, as documented by Bell, includes:

  • Extolling the benefits of stemming from “financial innovation,” including the “dramatic growth of the derivatives markets” as well as “syndication and securitization” in March 2007.

  • Judging that inflation risks were the top worry for the economy in mid-2008.

  • In 2009, worrying that Fed purchases of government debt would drive long-term yields higher because of worries about the central bank’s credibility. (The opposite happened.)

  • Supporting fiscal consolidation in 2010 when the unemployment rate was still around double digits, while not being in favor of additional monetary stimulus, either.

However, one low-key reason why Warsh didn’t get the job last time may not have been linked to any of these views, but rather to a series of disputes between him and former Fed Governor Randal Quarles. This includes one reported incident in which Warsh, acting on behalf of the Fed, declined to accept a six-foot statue of Marriner Eccles that the family had offered to donate for display. Marriner Eccles is a former Fed chair after whom the Fed’s DC offices are named. Quarles, who is married to one of his descendants, made it known that he was against Warsh’s candidacy.

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Qualcomm reportedly in talks to acquire AI chip-design company Tenstorrent

Qualcomm is in talks to acquire AI chip design firm Tenstorrent for $8 billion to $10 billion, according to The Information.

This transaction, if completed, would be another concrete signal of the San Diego-based chip company’s attempt to carve out a niche in the upstream AI space (data centers), rather than focusing on end-user devices.

Qualcomm’s key business of handset chips has fallen on hard times, particularly in China, due to the memory chip shortage.

Less than eight weeks ago, the chip company was the lowlight in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, down about 20% year-to-date.

Shares proceeded to surge over 60%, buoyed by optimism that the rising AI tide will lift all boats. With the release of Q2 earnings, CEO Cristiano Amon said that initial shipments of AI chips to a “leading hyperscaler” were on track for later this year, and to expect more on the company’s AI growth plans at its investor day on June 24 (next week). Last month, Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm is poised to sell "millions" of AI chips to TikTok parent ByteDance.

Established AI chip giants and hyperscalers alike have reached agreements with or gobbled up burgeoning AI chip companies as the boom rolls on. In December, Nvidia announced a major licensing deal with AI inference specialist Groq, while Meta bought AI chip startup Rivos in September.

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It’s still the “you gotta spend money to make money” stock market

A major theme of this year is that American companies are once again becoming major sellers of stocks.

For years, companies did the exact opposite: buying back trillions of dollars worth of shares, a practice that juiced earnings and was seen as a safe option for management teams that had run out of good-enough projects to allocate their capital to. Just look at Google, which is wiping out more than two years’ worth of buybacks with an $85 billion offering, while Meta reportedly mulls an equity raise of its own.

Now, the mantra is that investment opportunities in AI — particularly as suppliers to the arms race — are a source of future returns that are also key to sustaining higher growth. In short, capex is king, and buybacks are admitting that you don’t have enough investment opportunities that allow you to benefit from the AI boom. Raise debt, raise equity, raise anything — just make sure youre spending, and the market will reward you. A Goldman Sachs basket of companies with elevated capex relative to peers is besting stocks with the strongest buyback yields by some 30% — the most ever.

This is leading to some major divergences in accrual-based profit measures, like net income and free cash flow (which takes capex into account), for companies like Oracle.

Of course, the rest of the AI complex doesnt care whether the cash spent on the next data center was raised via debt or equity. More funding for the AI build-out is more funding for the AI build-out. Indeed, if we took capex to a bazillion dollars, that spending would still be accretive for aggregate earnings in the first year (assuming all the recipients of the capex binge were public stocks). Yes, eventually the depreciation on those assets starts to be felt and we’d normalize lower, but in the short term, it’s a boon to the stock markets bottom line.

This is why Oracle’s chart is actually just a more extreme version of the wider market; free cash flow used to be about 90% of aggregate net income, and now it’s hovering around 75%, per estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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Fox to acquire Roku in $22 billion deal to create streaming and live content powerhouse

Fox said it struck a deal to buy Roku in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at about $22 billion.

The deal values Roku at $160 a share, a 34% premium to where the stock had closed before reports surfaced Friday that Roku was exploring a sale, sending shares 20% higher on Friday.

On Monday, the stock edged lower to around $140, as investors digested the risk profile and timeline of the deal. The unseasonably elevated cost of funding equity positions amid elevated issuance and growth of leveraged ETFs may also be dampening the appeal of merger arbitrage strategies.

Fox stock dropped 17%, putting it at down roughly 25% so far this year.

The deal, expected to close in the first half of calendar year 2027, will expand Fox’s digital footprint as traditional cable continues to shrink. The merger would give Fox direct access to more than 100 million streaming households globally. Once the transaction closes, existing Fox shareholders will hold a roughly 73% stake in the combined company, with Roku shareholders owning the remaining 27%.

Fox has spent the past several years building out its streaming strategy through Tubi and, more recently, FOX One, its direct-to-consumer sports and news product. Just last week, Roku added FOX One as a premium subscription inside its Roku Channel, expanding distribution ahead of the FIFA World Cup.

Roku, meanwhile, has been trying to prove it can turn its scale into consistent profits. Roku generated $613 million in ad revenue in its latest quarter, up 27% year over year.

Roku had surged during the pandemic as investors piled into streaming winners and Roku was one of the beneficiaries of the stay-at-home boom. But it has given back much of those gains.

Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch called the acquisition “a defining moment” that combines Fox’s strength in live content with Roku’s streaming scale and platform reach. “This combination will transform the scope of our company into high-growth verticals and yield a step change in our overall growth profile,” he said in the announcement.

Roku CEO Anthony Wood said the deal would help accelerate Roku’s long-term growth while maintaining its position as an open platform.

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