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Reddit listing day
(Reddit)

Reddit sinks on heavy volumes, social media chatter of reduced referral traffic from ChatGPT

RBC Capital Markets says it’s tied to a recent change made by Google; ChatGPT thinks OpenAI’s recent model tweak is a plausible explanation.

Luke Kawa

Reddit is getting smoked amid elevated trading activity, deepening a rout that has seen shares sink 15% in the trailing eight sessions heading into today.

The consternation appears to be driven by reports on social media that suggest ChatGPT is using Reddit content as a source much less often.

The best example:

RBC Capital Markets analysts tied this loss of citation share to Google’s disabling of the “&num=100” parameter, which had the effect of limiting how many results large language models could draw upon to deliver answers.

They write:

This is consistent with our note from last week where we noted a 3p [third party] study posted online by agency showed that RDDT's citation share on ChatGPT had dropped significantly (from 29.2% range to 5.3% just since September 10th). At the time, we'd concluded that Google changing its indexing parameters from 100 (num=100) to 10 per page was causing 3p LLM's to essentially see 1/10th of their prior results as they indexed Google's search data. We are not yet clear as to whether companies like ChatGPT could increase their compute costs in accessing more pages to restore that indexing data or if that's even an option. A key unknown here is how much of RDDT's traffic was actually coming from ChatGPT which could have this type of an impact. To our knowledge, nothing about GOOGL's index parameter changes would have affected AI Overviews citations which we'd have thought would have been necessary to drive this pronounced of a decline in DAU's (per SimilarWeb).

OpenAI, for its part, updated its model on September 12 — just about the time these referrals apparently began to slide. I asked ChatGPT (who better?) to explain whether any tweaks made could have produced such an effect. Here’s what it told me:

What is possible/plausible from indirect/architectural changes

Even though there is no explicit statement, the kinds of changes made (or the framing of the update) could allow or encourage behavior shifts that indirectly reduce Reddit referrals. Some possibilities:

  1. Stricter guardrails/stronger authority constraints
    Because the update emphasizes clarity and stricter authority levels, internal policies might now more heavily vet or filter which external sources the model is allowed to cite, especially user‑generated content (like Reddit).

  2. Reprioritization of source quality/authority levels
    The model spec changes might shift the implicit priorities, favoring more authoritative, vetted sources (academic, official, news) over forums, social media, or user‑generated content by default.

  3. Nonpublic internal adjustments
    Even without a public note, internal (nonpublic) rule changes might have been made alongside the September 12 rollout — e.g. adjustments in how citations are ranked, filters applied, or which domains are considered “safe” to reference.

  4. Cascading effect from other policies/safety rules
    The new spec may create constraints (or higher “cost” in internal scoring) for referencing less controlled sources (where misinformation risk is higher). Over time, that could reduce those referrals as a side effect.

Update:

We asked ChatGPT which of Google or OpenAI’s tweak was playing a bigger role in reducing the share of Reddit citations. Here’s what it told us:

“I think it is quite probable that the mid‑September shift is largely driven by OpenAI’s internal changes (model / retrieval / policy), rather than being purely a downstream effect of Google’s n=100 removal.”

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Amazon just matched its longest losing streak in 20 years

Amazon shares marked their ninth straight day of losses — the company’s longest losing streak since 2006.

The milestone follows a fourth-quarter earnings miss, downbeat guidance, and a plan to spend a whopping $200 billion on capital expenditure this year.

Amazon is hoping that by spending big on AI infrastructure now, it will reap rewards from the technology later. Investors aren’t so sure.

Interestingly enough, the current situation sounds quite similar to the one Amazon was in two decades ago. Back then, Amazon endured a similar stretch as it was upping spending on tech and an online toy store — moves that would eat into its profits.

At the time, an asset manager told Bloomberg, “They want to capture as many eyeballs as they can on the Internet and be the go-to place on the Internet, but thats costing them earnings, at least right now.”

Sound familiar? In case you’re wondering, Amazon stock has risen 14,849% since that quote.

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Rivian is on pace for its best-ever trading day as analysts dig into Q4 results

EV maker Rivian is on track to log its best trading day on record Friday, as investors pour in following its fourth-quarter earnings report and 2026 guidance and analysts issue bullish appraisals of the shares.

Rivian shares are up more than 30% on Friday afternoon, easily surpassing its previous best trading day, which came in January 2025.

“We continue to remain confident in the long-term vision that RIVN is amid a massive transformation,” Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives wrote in a fresh note on Friday. The firm maintained its $25 price target and “outperform” outlook and said that the launch of Rivian’s upcoming lower-cost SUV, the R2, is “crucial.”

Rivian received upgrades from Deutsche Bank (to “buy” from “hold”) and UBS (to “neutral” from “sell”) following its results.

On its Thursday earnings call, Rivian said it expects its delivery volume of its existing vehicle lineup to land “roughly in line with... 2025 total volumes.” Given the automaker’s full-year delivery guidance, that statement implies 2026 R2 deliveries to land between 20,000 and 25,000 units.

Self-driving features also appear to be boosting investor optimism. On Thursday’s earnings call, CEO RJ Scaringe said the company would enable “point-to-point” driving in its vehicles later this year. In a podcast interview released Thursday, Scaringe predicted that by 2030, it will be “inconceivable to buy a car and not expect it to drive itself.” Rivian is targeting “a little sooner than that,” he added.

Rivian shares are also likely benefiting from something of a snapback: before the release of its Q4 results, Rivian shares had been hammered recently, down 38% since their recent high in December.

“We continue to remain confident in the long-term vision that RIVN is amid a massive transformation,” Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives wrote in a fresh note on Friday. The firm maintained its $25 price target and “outperform” outlook and said that the launch of Rivian’s upcoming lower-cost SUV, the R2, is “crucial.”

Rivian received upgrades from Deutsche Bank (to “buy” from “hold”) and UBS (to “neutral” from “sell”) following its results.

On its Thursday earnings call, Rivian said it expects its delivery volume of its existing vehicle lineup to land “roughly in line with... 2025 total volumes.” Given the automaker’s full-year delivery guidance, that statement implies 2026 R2 deliveries to land between 20,000 and 25,000 units.

Self-driving features also appear to be boosting investor optimism. On Thursday’s earnings call, CEO RJ Scaringe said the company would enable “point-to-point” driving in its vehicles later this year. In a podcast interview released Thursday, Scaringe predicted that by 2030, it will be “inconceivable to buy a car and not expect it to drive itself.” Rivian is targeting “a little sooner than that,” he added.

Rivian shares are also likely benefiting from something of a snapback: before the release of its Q4 results, Rivian shares had been hammered recently, down 38% since their recent high in December.

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