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Reddit sinks on heavy volumes, social media chatter of reduced referral traffic from ChatGPT

RBC Capital Markets says it’s tied to a recent change made by Google; ChatGPT thinks OpenAI’s recent model tweak is a plausible explanation.

Luke Kawa

Reddit is getting smoked amid elevated trading activity, deepening a rout that has seen shares sink 15% in the trailing eight sessions heading into today.

The consternation appears to be driven by reports on social media that suggest ChatGPT is using Reddit content as a source much less often.

The best example:

RBC Capital Markets analysts tied this loss of citation share to Google’s disabling of the “&num=100” parameter, which had the effect of limiting how many results large language models could draw upon to deliver answers.

They write:

This is consistent with our note from last week where we noted a 3p [third party] study posted online by agency showed that RDDT's citation share on ChatGPT had dropped significantly (from 29.2% range to 5.3% just since September 10th). At the time, we'd concluded that Google changing its indexing parameters from 100 (num=100) to 10 per page was causing 3p LLM's to essentially see 1/10th of their prior results as they indexed Google's search data. We are not yet clear as to whether companies like ChatGPT could increase their compute costs in accessing more pages to restore that indexing data or if that's even an option. A key unknown here is how much of RDDT's traffic was actually coming from ChatGPT which could have this type of an impact. To our knowledge, nothing about GOOGL's index parameter changes would have affected AI Overviews citations which we'd have thought would have been necessary to drive this pronounced of a decline in DAU's (per SimilarWeb).

OpenAI, for its part, updated its model on September 12 — just about the time these referrals apparently began to slide. I asked ChatGPT (who better?) to explain whether any tweaks made could have produced such an effect. Here’s what it told me:

What is possible/plausible from indirect/architectural changes

Even though there is no explicit statement, the kinds of changes made (or the framing of the update) could allow or encourage behavior shifts that indirectly reduce Reddit referrals. Some possibilities:

  1. Stricter guardrails/stronger authority constraints
    Because the update emphasizes clarity and stricter authority levels, internal policies might now more heavily vet or filter which external sources the model is allowed to cite, especially user‑generated content (like Reddit).

  2. Reprioritization of source quality/authority levels
    The model spec changes might shift the implicit priorities, favoring more authoritative, vetted sources (academic, official, news) over forums, social media, or user‑generated content by default.

  3. Nonpublic internal adjustments
    Even without a public note, internal (nonpublic) rule changes might have been made alongside the September 12 rollout — e.g. adjustments in how citations are ranked, filters applied, or which domains are considered “safe” to reference.

  4. Cascading effect from other policies/safety rules
    The new spec may create constraints (or higher “cost” in internal scoring) for referencing less controlled sources (where misinformation risk is higher). Over time, that could reduce those referrals as a side effect.

Update:

We asked ChatGPT which of Google or OpenAI’s tweak was playing a bigger role in reducing the share of Reddit citations. Here’s what it told us:

“I think it is quite probable that the mid‑September shift is largely driven by OpenAI’s internal changes (model / retrieval / policy), rather than being purely a downstream effect of Google’s n=100 removal.”

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Speculative stocks rebound from early sell-off

As we head toward the last hour of a wild week of trading, the buckle-up vibes the market started out with Friday have mellowed into a modestly positive day, with the Invesco QQQ Trust and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF both in the green.

But the volatility was pretty wild for some of the high-beta momentum stocks that have taken some of the worst beatings in recent days.

Shares like Applied Digital and Bloom Energy saw cumulative swings on the day along the lines of 20 percentage points. Even those that haven’t quite managed to stay positive, like IREN and Oklo, have nonetheless erased sizable losses.

Why? Frankly, it’s impossible to say. The same uncertainties that the market was facing yesterday — doubts about further rate hikes, confusion about the state of the economy, jitters about the potential for the AI boom to turn into a bust — are still hovering out there somewhere. Perhaps it will take more than a 2-percentage point drop from record highs for the major indexes — about the extent of the recent sell-off — to dull the retail reflex to buy the dip.

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Luke Kawa

Micron spikes on report that Samsung hiked memory chip prices by as much as 60%

Memory chip specialist Micron is soaring after Reuters reported that Samsung has raised prices of select memory chips by as much as 60% since September, citing two people with knowledge of the price changes.

Memory chips play a key supporting role in the AI boom by feeding high-powered GPUs with data to process.

Micron, the biggest US memory chip seller, has been on an absolute tear, more than doubling in price since the end of August. Shares recently traded more than 15% above the average analyst price target, a record based on data going back to 2007.

These days, you need a pretty good memory to keep up with all the bullish news flow surrounding memory chip stocks, whether it’s been reports of imminent price hikes for these chips, South Korean memory giant SK Hynix already being sold out of all its 2026 production, or Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang nodding at shortages of these valuable components.

markets

Warner Bros. Discovery rises as potential sale boils down to bidding war between Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix

The potential sale of Warner Bros. Discovery appears to have boiled down to three contenders: Paramount Skydance, Comcast, and Netflix.

All three entertainment giants are prepping bids for WBD, with a deadline of next Thursday for first-round offers, according to Wall Street Journal reporting. Warner Bros. shares climbed more than 2% in premarket trading on Friday.

Per the WSJ, Comcast and Netflix are mostly interested in WBD’s streaming assets, while Paramount — which is said to have had three offers rejected already — wants to buy the whole company.

According to people familiar with the companies’ plans, Paramount believes it has the clearest path toward regulatory approval, as it thinks Netflix’s cofounder, Reed Hastings, having supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election could be a significant hurdle in getting a deal approved, per the WSJ.

Per the WSJ, Comcast and Netflix are mostly interested in WBD’s streaming assets, while Paramount — which is said to have had three offers rejected already — wants to buy the whole company.

According to people familiar with the companies’ plans, Paramount believes it has the clearest path toward regulatory approval, as it thinks Netflix’s cofounder, Reed Hastings, having supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election could be a significant hurdle in getting a deal approved, per the WSJ.

markets
Luke Kawa

Beyond Meat’s refinancing efforts that spurred meme stock rally now have shares down 67%

Well, with a bit of time and a lot of volatility, the dust is settling on how Beyond Meat’s refinancing efforts have gone.

This morning, management announced that its new 2030 notes could be converted at a price of about $1.7459, or around 85% above where shares are trading in the premarket in the midst of another big retreat.

The twists and turns that brought us here:

On September 29, the company announced its intention to replace $1.15 billion in convertible notes due in 2027 (with an interest rate of 0%) with a mix of stock and up to $202.5 million in new second lien convertible notes due in 2030 (with an interest rate of 7%). Prior to that, its stock closed at $2.85.

Shortly after management reached a deal with 97% of its 2027 noteholders in mid-October, Beyond Meat became a meme stock. Despite massive dilution that raised the company’s share count by more than 300% and made prior noteholders the new corporate owners, retail traders positioned for a potential short squeeze in the shares, thinking the refinancing would give the company a new lease on life.

Shares rose from a closing low of $0.52 on October 16 to an intermediate closing peak of $3.62 on October 21 — a near 600% rally in just three sessions. That propelled shares to well above where they were trading before these refinancing plans were announced. But the true frenzied zenith for Beyond Meat came the next session, when the stock more than doubled intraday on what were then record volumes of above 2 billion, only to ultimately close slightly lower. The air came out of the balloon almost immediately thereafter.

(A fun aside: in calculating the conversion rate for the 2030 convertible notes, management deems that day to have been a “market disruption event,” which removes it from the calculations and makes the conversion price lower than it otherwise would have been.)

Shares tanked on October 23 on heavy volumes, and then interest and trading activity in Beyond continued to wane — along with its share price. Delaying the release of Q3 results as management tried to figure out how big of a write-down to take and then issuing those numbers along with a weak Q4 sales outlook did nothing to change the narrative.

There’s no reason to think those 2030 notes will be converted any time soon, based on where the stock is trading. Because these 2030 notes provide the opportunity for “payment in kind” and Beyond is in a relatively stressed financial position, interest on these notes can be paid not just with cash but also (more likely) through the issuance of more stock or the accumulation of more debt.

In sum: Beyond Meat eliminated about $800 million in debt and all it got in exchange was a 67% decline in its stock price, a longer runway to make processed peas into faux meat, and an entertaining (and for those who bought into the meme rally without exiting at the right time, painful) story.

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