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'There's nothing perfect in this world of growing apples.' Extreme weather could complicate future harvests.
Honeycrisp apples on the tree at Tougas Family Farm in Northborough, Massachusetts (Jessica Rinaldi/Getty Images)

The remarkable rise of the Honeycrisp and Cosmic Crisp apples

When it comes to apples, America cannot get enough of the crunch factor.

America is a land of diversity where people, cultures, and inspirations clash to create a melting pot of different ideas. But ask a room full of people what their favorite apple is and these days you might get a lot of the same answer: Honeycrisp.

The apple of our eyes

Unfortunately, as reported by The Wall Street Journal earlier this week, farming them is something of a nightmare. Honeycrisps are easily bruised, often grow too densely for their own good, have to be hand-clipped from trees due to their thin skin, and can be afflicted by diseases that blotch the fruit. They are, as one farmer put it, a “diva.”

They’re also valuable, however, dubbed “moneycrisps” by some. And, along with the Cosmic Crisp and Pink Lady, they’re soaring up the apple production league tables toward icons like Gala and Red Delicious, which have seen production drop over time.

Apple production in the US
Sherwood News

Per data from USApple, the core of the apple-eating market is increasingly the three varieties that make a mouth-watering crunchCosmic Crisp, Pink Lady, and Honeycrisp — production volumes of which have jumped 3,391%, 63%, and 17% in the last five years, respectively.

Remarkably, a study published all the way back in 2013 essentially predicted this boom, finding that when consumers assessed apples based on their appearance, they looked for size and color. When evaluating taste they wanted sweetness and crispness. And they’re willing to pay: per retail price data tracked by USApple, Honeycrisp was the most expensive apple in 2023-24, at $1.88, compared to Gala at $1.49 and Red Delicious apples at $1.26.

But, with production expenses for fruit farms rising across the board, up 49% over the last decade, even producers of the “moneycrisp” have been feeling the pressure in the industry’s bottom line — and the new, crunchier, and crispier varieties also tend to have more volatile prices.

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Traders are pricing in a big swing in AI chip market share to Broadcom from Nvidia

The story within the AI trade lately has been: Google’s a winner, and OpenAI is a... well, to be kind, non-winner.

Companies closely tied to the former, like Broadcom, which codesigns the TPUs that Gemini 3 was trained on, have benefited from their relationship with the hyperscaling search giant. Conversely, Nvidia, which sells to both Google and OpenAI but is besieged with worries about how custom chips might impact its AI market share (and profitability), has been selling off.

“NVDA stock is now trading at its widest ever ~40% discount to AVGO’s current 42x forward PE versus historical -10%/+7% discount/premium over the past 1/2 yrs, respectively,” Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote. “In other words, consensus has already implicitly shifted at least 10+ points of (2H26E/27E) AI market share towards AVGO, conceptually.”

The abrupt shift in valuation amid this divergent price action is reversing course on Monday: Nvidia’s up about 1.5% as of 10:55 a.m. ET, while Broadcom is off 2.6%.

Air taxi companies are in the red as Goldman initiates coverage on Archer, Joby, and Beta

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the major US air taxi companies on Monday, including Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Beta Technologies. All three are trading down as the bank’s first notes hit investor inboxes.

Though Joby “appears to be in pole position” on certification, analyst Anthony Valentini gave the stock a “sell” rating and a $10 price target — 30% below the value of Joby’s stock at Friday’s close. Valentini wrote that it’s unclear where competitors stand in the process.

Goldman gave Archer a “neutral” rating and an $11 price target, highlighting the company’s ability to cut spending. Beta Technologies, which went public last month, received a “buy” rating and a $47 price target.

markets

Crypto-adjacent stocks drop to start the week

Crypto-adjacent shares slid in early trading along with unprofitable tech company shares, as animal spirits ebbed to start the US trading week.

Goldman Sachs’ basket of bitcoin-sensitive stocks — heavily weighted toward Coinbase and treasury companies like MARA Holdings and Strategy — was down more than 3% early, reflecting another tumble in bitcoin overnight, though bitcoin prices stabilized a bit in early US trading. Robinhood Markets — shares of which have at times taken cues from the price of crypto, which is traded on the brokerage app — was also down.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

It would take a talented druid and a flock’s worth of bird entrails to the divine precisely what’s driving the downdraft. But S&P’s recent assessment of the vulnerability of Tether’s stablecoin, USDT — the world’s largest of these supposedly safer forms of crypto — to the bitcoin sell-off might be playing a role.

markets

Bank of America joins consensus on quarter-point Fed cut this month

Bank of America analysts clambered aboard the bandwagon expecting a rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day meeting next Wednesday. In a note published Monday, they wrote:

“Several factors drive our new call: (1) the jump in the u-rate to 4.44% in the Sep jobs report; (2) Williams’ endorsement of a cut after the data release, until which time markets were leaning toward a hold; (3) weakness in the ADP data and the Beige Book’s labor market assessment; and (4) the fact that Chair Powell hasn’t pushed back — either directly or via the press — against market pricing of an 80%+ chance of a cut going into the blackout period, which began on Saturday.”

Just for the record, the market — and most of Wall Street’s Fed watching class — has largely already come to the same conclusion.

The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a nearly 88% probability of such a snip at the meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, up from 63% a month ago. That’s also essentially where event contracts are trading.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. Event contracts trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC.)

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.