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Luke Kawa

Retail traders are forcing institutional investors into their favorite stocks

JPMorgan’s note on retail trading activity is so nice, I have to write about it twice.

In addition to leaving a big mark on how stocks trade on earnings releases, strategists led by Arun Jain also flagged how in meme stock land and beyond, retail traders are basically forcing institutions to play a game of follow-the-leader.

“As an interesting pattern within ‘Meme’ stocks (e.g. Opendoor Technologies), retail buying in prior months is followed by non-retails joining the trade more recently,” they wrote. “This is in line with our reading on the broader market — retail investors benefitted from ‘buying-the-dip’ as we entered the sharp V-shaped recovery post-Liberation Day, while the High Beta rally (which also included Meme stocks) was fueled by non-retail investors catching up via higher beta exposure.”

OPEN retail and non-retail activity

I would also be remiss not to say that retail buying outstrips non-retail buying by a substantial margin, further underscoring the notion that “buyer’s binges” are a more important part of so-called “short squeezes” than investors who bet against the stock actually closing their positions.

However, Jain and co. caution that “as a result, High Beta Crowding is at all-time highs and is likely to experience snapbacks as sentiment sours with policy uncertainty or weak economic data.”

Along these lines, Goldman Sachs strategist John Marshall is telling clients to buy large-cap meme stocks including Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices(?!?).

In the case of the latter, we’re really stretching the definition of what “meme stock” means. AMD, while trading at about a 40% premium to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as a whole, isn’t outrageously valued and has a fairly well-established and successful business model. However, per Goldman, it is a name with elevated retail activity.

The phenomenon of “herding behavior” is well known in nature. It’s just a little surprising to see retail traders being portrayed as the shepherds and professionals as the sheep!

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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