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Luke Kawa

Retail traders made their biggest buys of US stocks in a decade during the S&P 500’s worst day since 2020

The US stock market’s worst day since June 2020 was, in the eyes of retail traders, the biggest buying opportunity in at least 10 years.

“Despite a sea of red, retail investors stood firm and not only bought the dip but did so at a historic pace,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Emma Wu. “They ended today [Thursday] with +$4.7 billion of net buying, the largest level over the past decade.”

When it comes to what they’re buying, the retail crowd is largely continuing to dance with the ones that brought them.

“Their preference for the Mag 7 continued though Tesla was the only company sold of the set,” they added.

Nvidia and Amazon were the most preferred picks, with more than $400 million in net buys, respectively.

The analysts observed that this type of behavior is very different to how retail reacted to the Covid-induced shock. Not only was retail more willing to buy this time, but they were willing to express conviction in single stocks:

“Although the market has undergone its worst 1D performance in five years, the response by Retail investors stood in stark contrast to the 2020 COVID sell-off. At that time, they largely exacerbated the existing institutional selling, with ~75% correlation between market performance and their subsequent flows. Even on days they did decide to step in, they did not have the confidence to pick stocks but instead opted for more diversified ETF exposure, leading to a high ETF-to-singles ratio.”

Retail buying
Source: JPMorgan

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GameStop surges amid bullish options flows

Shares of GameStop are jumping on no news amid elevated options demand that’s got a decidedly bullish tilt.

(Ah, typing that makes me feel younger!)

As of 3 p.m. ET, more than 233,000 call options have changed hands, already 100,000 above their full-day average over the past 20 sessions. And that’s largely one-way traffic: the stock’s put/call ratio is sitting at 0.1, which would be its lowest for a single session since July 21.

Call options that expire this Friday with strike prices of $23.50 and $24 are among the contracts seeing the most activity.

IBM Analysts React Man Reading Report

Analysts parse IBM earnings, see weakness, stock slides

IBM is on track for its worst trading day in months.

markets

Southwest sinks on bearish options activity following its third-quarter earnings beat

Southwest’s first full quarter of baggage fees drove it to a revenue record and a profit beat, sending shares higher in after-hours trading on Wednesday. But on Thursday morning, its shares are down more than 5%.

As of 10:50 a.m. ET, more than 31,000 put options in Southwest Airlines have changed hands. That’s already about 50% above its 20-day average for a full session. Thursday’s trading was particularly skewed toward puts, with a put/call ratio of about 3.3 versus Southwest’s 20-day average ratio of less than 1.4.

The bearish options activity coincides with Southwest’s earnings call on Thursday, which apparently isn’t doing much to inspire optimism.

markets

Las Vegas Sands soars as Q3 earnings beat and Macau momentum fuel analyst optimism

Shares of Las Vegas Sands leapt over 12% Thursday morning after the casino operator reported a strong third quarter fueled by booming business at its properties in Macau and Singapore.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.78, beating analyst expectations of $0.62. Revenue hit $3.3 billion, also above the Street’s forecast of $3.05 billion. The company plans to raise its annual dividend by $0.20 for 2026, bringing the total payout to $1.20 per share.

“We remain enthusiastic about our growth opportunities in both Macao and Singapore as we realize the benefits of our recently completed capital investment programs,” Chairman and CEO Robert G. Goldstein said in a statement.

Analysts were optimistic on the results:

  • Stifel kept its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $68 from $60.

  • Barclays maintained a buy” rating and lifted its target to $62 from $59.

  • Goldman Sachs held a neutral rating but boosted its target to $64 from $57.

  • Mizuho kept its buy rating and raised its target to $63 from $56.

  • Macquarie maintained a neutral rating but increased its target to $64 from $62.

markets

Super Micro slumps after announcing preliminary Q1 net sales far below Wall Street’s expectations

Super Micro Computer is slumping after management delivered a preliminary revenue update that came in far short of what the Street was expecting.

Net sales for the quarter ended September 30 (the company’s fiscal Q1 2026) will be about $5 billion, according to a press release, which is below its guidance for $6 billion to $7 billion and below the average analyst estimate of just short of $6.5 billion.

Management attributed this to “recent design wins in excess of $12 billion, requesting delivery in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q2’26).”

Charles Liang, President and CEO reitereated the company’s expectation of $33 billion in revenues for the fiscal year that started in July, saying “We see customer demand accelerating, and we are gaining AI share.”

If net sales do come in around $5 billion, that would be a roughly 20% decline versus the same period in 2024.

This is not the first time this year that Super Micro has preannounced a revenue miss and effectively blamed it on timing issues.

On April 29, the company preannounced disappointing results and said, “During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4.” Pushing back the timing of a big revenue ramp has been a common theme for Super Micro throughout the year.

As we wrote in August:

“If I could boil down the cause of the substantial volatility in shares of Super Micro Computer this year to one sentence, it would be this: it’s in the AI business — which is clearly booming — and management makes big promises on sales that it fails to deliver on.

Sales are the football, management is Lucy, and investors are Charlie Brown, falling for each renewed promise and then having it yanked away and landing flat on their backs.”

Super Micro scheduled an earnings call for Nov. 4 to discuss the outlook for second-quarter revenues and deliveries.

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