markets

Luke Kawa4/4/25

Retail traders made their biggest buys of US stocks in a decade during the S&P 500’s worst day since 2020

The US stock market’s worst day since June 2020 was, in the eyes of retail traders, the biggest buying opportunity in at least 10 years.

“Despite a sea of red, retail investors stood firm and not only bought the dip but did so at a historic pace,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Emma Wu. “They ended today [Thursday] with +$4.7 billion of net buying, the largest level over the past decade.”

When it comes to what they’re buying, the retail crowd is largely continuing to dance with the ones that brought them.

“Their preference for the Mag 7 continued though Tesla was the only company sold of the set,” they added.

Nvidia and Amazon were the most preferred picks, with more than $400 million in net buys, respectively.

The analysts observed that this type of behavior is very different to how retail reacted to the Covid-induced shock. Not only was retail more willing to buy this time, but they were willing to express conviction in single stocks:

“Although the market has undergone its worst 1D performance in five years, the response by Retail investors stood in stark contrast to the 2020 COVID sell-off. At that time, they largely exacerbated the existing institutional selling, with ~75% correlation between market performance and their subsequent flows. Even on days they did decide to step in, they did not have the confidence to pick stocks but instead opted for more diversified ETF exposure, leading to a high ETF-to-singles ratio.”

Retail buying — Source: JPMorgan

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Department of Commerce will soon allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip to China: report

The US Department of Commerce will give the go-ahead to export the the powerful H200 chip produced by Nvidia to China, which has been a core priority of the chip juggernaut, according a source with “knowledge of the plan,” Semafor reports. The chip designer’s stock surged on the news.

H200s are the most advanced chips from the Hopper line, which was Nvidia’s leading offering prior to Blackwell.

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington DC have been hesitant to allow the export the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower, introducing a bill in the Senate to limit China’s access to chips last week.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

Exclusive: Commerce to open up exports of NVIDIA H200 Chips to China

H200s are the most advanced chips from the Hopper line, which was Nvidia’s leading offering prior to Blackwell.

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington DC have been hesitant to allow the export the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower, introducing a bill in the Senate to limit China’s access to chips last week.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

markets

Matt Phillips4h

SpaceX valuation chatter lifts satellite stocks

Satellite stocks rose early Monday, riding a wave of excitement about recent reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s satellite startup, SpaceX, is shooting for an $800 billion valuation as it launches a secondary share sale.

EchoStar and Rocket Lab rose, partly in response to the report.

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote that the valuation news has positive implications for owners of satellite spectrum rights.

If the reported valuation is ultimately achieved, it would be a mark-to-market moment suggesting that traditional satellite spectrum rights are worth more than the market had previously assumed.

That likely explains some of EchoStar’s outperformance on the day. As a legacy provider of satellite-based television services — such as Dish Network — it is a large owner of that spectrum, and has recently been an opportunistic seller of those assets, including to AT&T and SpaceX.

But the market doesn’t seem to like the implications for AST SpaceMobile, which has been trying to build up its portfolio of spectrum rights to compete as a seller of space-based services directly to consumers.

Higher spectrum right prices mean AST will have to cough up more cash as it competes with a Musk-controlled, $800 billion satellite gorilla.

SpaceX to Offer Insider Shares at Record-Setting $800 Billion Valuation

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote that the valuation news has positive implications for owners of satellite spectrum rights.

If the reported valuation is ultimately achieved, it would be a mark-to-market moment suggesting that traditional satellite spectrum rights are worth more than the market had previously assumed.

That likely explains some of EchoStar’s outperformance on the day. As a legacy provider of satellite-based television services — such as Dish Network — it is a large owner of that spectrum, and has recently been an opportunistic seller of those assets, including to AT&T and SpaceX.

But the market doesn’t seem to like the implications for AST SpaceMobile, which has been trying to build up its portfolio of spectrum rights to compete as a seller of space-based services directly to consumers.

Higher spectrum right prices mean AST will have to cough up more cash as it competes with a Musk-controlled, $800 billion satellite gorilla.

markets

Marvell sinks after Benchmark cuts company, saying that it lost its Amazon custom chip design business

Over the past two trading days, Marvell Technology has faced vexing questions about its relationship with its top two custom chip hyperscaler customers.

Shares are tumbling, down 9% as of 10:21 a.m. ET.

Late last week, The Information reported that Microsoft, its second-biggest custom chip buyer, was in talks to shift that business from Marvell to Broadcom.

Now, Benchmark analyst Cody Acree thinks that Marvell’s largest custom chip customer, Amazon, has done the same, writing that “we now have a high degree of conviction that the company has lost both Amazon’s Trainium3 and 4 designs to its Taiwanese competitor, Alchip.”

Acree downgraded Marvell to “hold” from “buy,” recommending that investors take profit after its post-earnings bounce.

(Harlan Sur at JPMorgan, for what it’s worth, does not believe this is the case, pointing to Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI as providing key technology that aligns the company with Amazon’s future chip design needs.)

During the conference call that followed earnings, Sur asked Marvell CEO Matt Murphy about its role with Amazon chips going forward.

“What I would say, which is incorporated into our numbers, is that our product transition from where we are today with our lead XPU customer to the next one is baked into all the numbers I gave you. And yes, I got the backlog, and I got the orders, and we got great visibility there,” Murphy said.

Murphy’s answer was not quite definitive, according to Acree, who thinks that Marvell’s revenue forecast is being “driven by expected continued Trainium2 volumes and a Kuiper low-earth orbit engagement and not the successful transition to Trainium3 designs that many on the sell-side have concluded.”

markets

J. Edward Moreno4h

Structure Therapeutics posts mid-stage weight-loss pill data in line with Eli Lilly rival

Structure Therapeutics soared in early trading after it reported mid-stage results for its weight-loss pill that were roughly in line with Eli Lilly’s competing product.

The San Francisco-based biotech reported that patients lost roughly 11.3% of their body weight on a lower dose of the pill, aleniglipron, in a mid-stage study. That puts it roughly in line with Lilly’s competing pill, orforglipron, and slightly below Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy.

Both Lilly and Novo’s pills are awaiting regulatory approval and are expected to go to market next year. While the weight-loss numbers were encouraging, Structure’s pill did report higher rates of side effects like nausea and vomiting.

Investors have been closely watching drugmakers’ once-daily pills, which could replace the weekly injections currently on the market. While pills tend to be less effective than shots, they are less expensive to manufacture than prefilled injection pens and are more inviting to squeamish patients.

Warner Brothers To Put Itself Up For Sale

Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share, trying to upend Netflix deal

Paramount is taking its Warner Bros. Discovery purchase effort straight to shareholders.

Max Knoblauch5h

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