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Retail traders may have finally given up on buying the dip

During the market’s recent rout, JPMorgan equity analysts spotlighted a pivot away from some high-flying Trump-related trades into plain vanilla index ETFs.

Crypto and stock markets got a brief boost Monday as the president touted a plan to use US taxpayer money to buy a broader range of cryptocurrencies for a theoretical “strategic reserve.”

But they couldn’t hold early gains, thanks in part to President Trump’s threats of tariffs and a big slump in market behemoth Nvidia, which pushed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq into negative territory.

It makes you wonder whether the Bank of America analysts who predicted the popping of the “bro bubble” might be on to something.

During the stock market carnage that began February 19 and rolled through most of last week, JPMorgan analysts who keep a close eye on retail trading activity noticed something. In a Wednesday note last week, they spotlighted strong selling of top retail favorites like Palantir, alongside strong buying of tried-and-true diversified ETFs.

Analysts used z-scores to indicate the size, in terms of standard deviation, of the waves of buying and selling:

“Over the week, almost entire inflows into ETFs (+$3.4B) were offset by single stocks (-$3.2B). S&P and Nasdaq ETFs continued to dominate the inflows, collectively accounting for $1.5B (+2z). On the other hand, bitcoin-related ETFs led the outflows (IBIT -1.6z, GBTC -1.2z) as cryptocurrenecy almost erased the entire ‘Trump bump’.

Among single stocks, all sectors were net sold, led by tech (-$1B). PLTR accounted for nearly a half of the outflow (-$480Mn) within tech, marking the largest amount on record since 2015 (Figure 2). Super Micro Computer also contributed meaning outflows (-2.5z).”

It’s worth noting that the last time Palantir was getting badly beat up in the markets, back in January, JPM analysts reported that retail traders flocked to buy the dip in the data analytics and software company, as well other favorites. That suggested widespread retail confidence in a market recovery. (To be clear, Palantir is bucking the broader trend today, posting a solid gain.)

But during the latest downturn, for whatever reason — policy uncertainty, weakening economic data, tariffs, or broad worries about the sustainability of the AI trade — the rampaging animal spirits that emerged after the president’s election last November have evaporated.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the market is doomed. It could just be that stocks, which were reaching fairly high levels of valuation at more than 22x forward earnings, were in desperate need of a sell-off, before it consolidates and moves higher.

It’ll be interesting to keep watching retail traders to see what their confidence level is that the postelection rally can be revived.

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Nvidia strikes licensing agreement with AI inference specialist Groq

Nvidia reached an agreement to work with AI chip startup Groq to enhance its inference capabilities.

CNBC is calling this a $20-billion acquisition in cash, citing the top investor in Groq’s latest financing round (which valued it at roughly $6.9 billion in September). Groq’s press release on the matter, however, refers to this only as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement” and that “Groq will continue to operate as an independent company,” with no financial details provided. The lack of an official acquisition may be a bid to duck any potential antitrust concerns.

However, this is definitively an acqui-hire, as Groq founder Jonathan Ross and president Sunny Madra, as well as other members of their team, will be joining the chip designer “to help advance and scale the licensed technology.”

Inference is the “thinking” part of AI models (as opposed to training, which is more of the “learning”). Groq’s AI chips are LPUs (language processing units), distinct from GPUs (graphics processing units) or TPUs (tensor processing units). The company boasts that these chips “run Large Language Models (LLMs) and other leading models at substantially faster speeds and, on an architectural level, up to 10x more efficiently from an energy perspective compared to GPUs.” These products don’t need external high-bandwidth memory chips (which are facing a supply crunch), but rather use a different method of on-chip memory (SRAM, or static random-access memory).

Through this deal, Nvidia is likely looking to boost the efficiency of its AI solutions in a power-hungry (and scarce) world. It may also be viewed as a response to the success of Google’s Gemini 3 model, which utilizes TPUs that are also cheaper to operate than Nvidia’s GPUs. (In a fun twist, Ross, the Groq founder, was one of the architects of what would become Google’s first TPU during his time with the search giant).

“We plan to integrate Groq’s low-latency processors into the NVIDIA AI factory architecture, extending the platform to serve an even broader range of AI inference and real-time workloads,” wrote Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in an email to employees, as reported by CNBC.

Good news for Groq is also good news for one of America’s most controversial and outspoken VCs: Chamath Palihapitiya, whose Social Capital fund was an early investor in the company. Chamath’s SPACs have generally tended to go over like a lead zeppelin, but this investment is already a massive winner.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron jumps amid report of memory chip price hikes

Shares of Micron are catching a bid on Wednesday after South Korean media reported that its biggest competitors are raising selling prices for a line of high-bandwidth memory chips even though these will soon no longer be the most cutting-edge offerings available.

“According to industry sources on the 24th, memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have reportedly raised HBM3E supply prices by nearly 20%,” per the report from Chosun Biz. “This is unusual, considering that prices typically drop ahead of next-generation HBM launches. The prevailing view is that this is due to upward adjustments in HBM3E orders for next year from companies like Google and Amazon, which design their own AI accelerators, as well as NVIDIA, the largest HBM3E customer.”

Micron, along with those two companies, make up the triumvirate of high-bandwidth memory chip suppliers. These companies are all moving towards ramping their next-gen HBM4 production next year.

Meanwhile, appetite for HBM3E is being reinforced in part by President Trump’s move to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China.

markets
Luke Kawa

Opendoor acquires HomeBuyer.com in bid to boost home flipping and mortgage opportunities

Opendoor Technologies has acquired mortgage services platform HomeBuyer.com, according to a post on X from Chief Growth Officer Morgan Brown. Brown did not disclose financial terms of the deal in the post.

There’s an element of an acqui-hire here too, as HomeBuyer.com founder Dan Green will serve as Director of Mortgage Growth for Opendoor.

HomeBuyer.com offers tools for potential home buyers to assess their financing options, and mortgages are a logical avenue for Opendoor to pursue as the online real estate company looks transform the home buying and selling process in the US. At the very least, streamlining the financing process for potential buyers under its own roof should help Opendoor’s quest to pursue higher volumes of homes flipping.

Shares of Opendoor are little changed in premarket trading.

Many Opendoor bulls, including EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, have pointed to Opendoor’s potential to bolster its presence in mortgage, title, and other housing services as part of their optimistic view on the stock. In November along with the release of Q3 earnings, CEO Kaz Nejatian announced a new partnership with Roam pertaining to assumable mortgages.

Opendoor certainly hasn’t been idle during the holiday season. Earlier this week, the CEO touted an explosion in the company’s home-buying footprint to include all of the lower 48 US states, and management also announced that Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson was coming in to serve as its president.

markets
Luke Kawa

Intel drops on report that Nvidia stopped testing the 18A chip production process used by the chip manufacturer

Early on Christmas Eve, shares of Intel are tumbling like Santa off a rooftop after one too many spiked egg nogs.

Reuters reports that Nvidia “recently tested out whether it would manufacture its chips using Intel’s production process known as 18A but stopped moving forward, two people familiar with the matter said.”

Intel, for its part, told Reuters that its 18A processes are “progressing well” while it “continues to see strong interest” for its more advanced 14A production process. Previous reporting from the outlet indicated that in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s early days leading Intel, he considered shelving the 18A manufacturing process entirely in favor of 14A in a bid to be more competitive with the likes of TSMC.

The $4 trillion chip designer announced a $5 billion investment in the chipmaker back in September as part of a collaboration that would see the two parties co-develop data center and PC products. That news sent shares of Intel up 23% in a single session, their biggest one-day gain since 1987.

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