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Salesforce drops despite Q2 beat as guidance disappoints and AI investments are yet to bear fruit

Salesforce fell more than 6% in early trading on Thursday after issuing a soft third-quarter outlook.

Second-quarter revenue rose 10% to $10.24 billion, higher than the $10.14 billion forecast, while adjusted earnings per share of $2.91 also topped the Bloomberg-compiled consensus estimates for $2.78.

But what seems to have disappointed investors was its underwhelming Q3 revenue guidance of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion, which, at the midpoint ($10.265 billion), is just below consensus expectations of $10.28 billion.

Salesforce’s revenue growth has slowed to single digits since mid-2024, lagging other large-cap tech giants, as the company’s AI push has yet to deliver meaningful returns. The company says that its AI assistant, Agentforce, launched last October, has closed over 12,500 deals. Still, AI remains a small revenue driver: data cloud and AI annual recurring revenue jumped 120% year over year to $1.2 billion — about 3% of the ~$41 billion revenue Salesforce expects for FY 2026.

“It is early days in the adoption cycle, but we are really confident in our strategy to monetize AI,” Chief Operating and Financial Officer Robin Washington told analysts yesterday. In an interview with CNBC, the company’s CEO, Marc Benioff, said, “Our results are absolutely fantastic and our guidance is also, you know, is always appropriately conservative.”

With the latest drop, shares are down nearly 30% so far this year.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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