The market smells a rate cut

Odds derived from the Fed funds futures market — and published by the CME — put a 98% probability on the Fed cutting rates when it meets in September. (That market is just as certain that the US central bank doesn’t do a thing when it makes its next decision July 31.) I’ve heard there’s been some news in the world of presidential politics. But for my money, the return of rate cuts — unseen since February 2020 — is a bigger deal for the markets than any regime change at the White House.

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Toby Bochan

Market Wrap

13h

Stocks rise amid optimism around US peace plan for Iran

Gains in technology supported the broader market rally.

Max Knoblauch16h

JetBlue surges following report it is exploring potential merger partners

Shares of JetBlue spiked more than 15% midday Wednesday following a Semafor report that the airline is exploring merger partners.

The company has explored Washington’s regulatory temperature around a potential merger with United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air, per the report. When Semafor reached out to JetBlue regarding the exploration, it declined to comment.

JetBlue’s attempt to acquire budget rival Spirit was blocked by the Biden administration in 2024.

Exclusive: JetBlue explores potential merger partners

JetBlue’s attempt to acquire budget rival Spirit was blocked by the Biden administration in 2024.

Matt Phillips17h

Sandisk, Micron dive as Google Research unveils AI algorithm to reduce memory demands

This might be an unfortunately memorable day for the memory trade.

Memory stocks Sandisk, Micron, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Western Digital sank Wednesday after Alphabet’s Google Research group published details of a new algorithm known as TurboQuant.

Per Google’s extremely technical release, TurboQuant is an algorithm that allows for a data technique called “vector quantization” to be used while addressing the issue of so-called “memory overhead,” allowing data in AI models to be compressed without reductions in accuracy or requiring retraining, while reducing the memory storage requirements at data centers.

And that outlook seems to be enough for the market to be sending memory stocks down for the day.

TurboQuant: Redefining AI efficiency with extreme compression

And that outlook seems to be enough for the market to be sending memory stocks down for the day.

J. Edward Moreno18h

Fundrise’s venture fund extends rally, trading more than 2 dozen times above asset value

Fundrise Innovation Fund, a publicly traded venture fund that owns stakes in private companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, is continuing to rally as the gap between the value of its stock price and its underlying assets grows.

Shares of the fund, which uses the ticker VCX, closed at $314.99 on Tuesday and rose to $533 by Wednesday morning — a nearly 70% jump for the day and a more than 1,500% increase in the value of its stock since it went public on March 19.

Fundrise’s vertiginous price action underscores just how hungry retail investors are for exposure to high-flying private companies, even at increasingly eye-watering implied valuations.

Fundrise’s venture fund, which owns private tech giants like Anthropic and SpaceX, surges as retail investors pile in

Fundrise’s vertiginous price action underscores just how hungry retail investors are for exposure to high-flying private companies, even at increasingly eye-watering implied valuations.

18h

LET THERE BE LIGHT

Matt Phillips

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