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Matt Phillips1/29/26

ServiceNow slips despite beating Q4 earnings expectations

Cloud software giant ServiceNow delivered better-than-expected Q4 sales and earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, though the shares slipped in after-hours trading.

The company reported:

Revenue of $3.57 billion, higher than the $3.53 billion analyst consensus estimate published by FactSet.
Adjusted earnings of $0.92 per share vs. the $0.88 analysts expected.
Subscription revenue of $3.47 billion vs. the $3.42 billion predicted.
Issued guidance for Q1 subscription revenues of between $3.65 billion and 3.655 billion, compared to the $3.58 billion FactSet consensus estimate.
Non-GAAP gross margins of 80.5%, a little light compared to the 81.1% FactSet consensus estimate.

Despite the better-than-expected results, the stock was down after-hours. ServiceNow also announced an expanded AI partnership with Anthropic, in which it will enmesh Anthropic’s Claude models more deeply into its products, alongside its financial results.

Such efforts to more closely associate itself with the AI boom have fizzled so far. ServiceNow shares have plunged 45% over the last year. And investors clearly remain skeptical after the Q4 numbers.

Correction (January 29, 9:16 a.m. ET) : ServiceNow issued Q1 2026 subscription revenue guidance for the first time in its January 28 earnings release. A previous version of this post reported that ServiceNow raised Q1 guidance.

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Matt Phillips7h

Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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