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Southwest Q2 sales and earnings fall short of Wall Street estimates

One month of raking in bag fees wasn’t exactly enough to lift Southwest Airlines to cruising altitude.

The airline reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday and said it expects its full-year earnings before interest and taxes to land between $600 million and $800 million. Along with rivals Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, Southwest had pulled its annual guidance earlier this spring.

Southwest shares were up 0.2% after-hours. Likely encouraging investors was a new $2 billion share buyback plan over the next two years and Southwest’s statement that “recent industry demand shows signs of improvement off of depressed second quarter 2025 levels.”

Southwest posted earnings per share of $0.39, below expectations of $0.51 per analysts polled by FactSet and down more than 30% from the same period last year. Its Q2 sales reached $7.24 billion, shy of the $7.29 billion expected by the Street.

Despite all the cost cutting Southwest’s been up to since ceding board seats to activist investor Elliott Management in October, its nonfuel costs per seat mile climbed 4.3% on the quarter, in line with its own expectations. Southwest expects those costs to climb between 3.5% and 5.5% in the current quarter.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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