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Service dogs flying on Southwest.
These good bois (or girls) should still get to sit wherever they want (Getty Images)
HEDGE NO BETS

Southwest’s cost-cutting spree now includes a big gamble on oil prices

Fuel hedges are going off the menu at the airline.

Luke Kawa

As part of its cost-cutting spree, Southwest is ending a practice that has saved the company billions. 

Further plans to reduce expenses include “the discontinuation of our fuel hedging program, which eliminates additional fuel hedge premiums in the future,” CEO Bob Jordan said at JPMorgan’s Industrials Conference. “We’ll be opportunistic in unwinding our existing positions based on market conditions.”

The airline is pulling out all the stops to cut costs lately: unveiling a freeze on hiring and promotions in January, announcing the elimination of nearly 1,800 employees in February, and now this revelation in March.

Putting on and maintaining hedges costs money, and fuel is the second-largest operating expense for the airline after labor costs. But in the past, spending that money to hedge its exposure to fluctuations in fuel prices has been a way that Southwest ultimately kept costs down.

Bloomberg wrote that Southwest Airlines is “one of the few” airlines that maintained oil hedges following the financial crisis, which saved the company $3.5 billion in the 10 years through 2008. Its fuel costs have generally fluctuated much less than competitor American Airlines (which hasn’t hedged its exposure), and Southwest also outperformed its peers in the first half of 2022 when oil prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

If fuel costs rise, the unwinding of these hedges could backfire in a big way for Southwest (and likely put upward pressure on ticket prices). And if fuel costs go down, well… I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Jordan & Co. to pass the savings along to you.

Southwest is certainly in a state of transition, if not upheaval, after a pressure campaign from activist Elliott Investment management led to a mass shakeup of its board last fall. Along with the recent bevy of cost-cutting measures, the company just announced the end of its “bags fly free” policy, which management expects will generate additional revenue going forward. Time flies — just six months ago, it said “bags fly free” would stay because cutting it would “drive down demand and far outweigh any revenue gains created.”

Add this to the list of signs that Southwest is trying to be just like every other airline.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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