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Stock futures dip after report Trump considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, drones strike Kuwait’s largest oil refinery

After a small relief rally yesterday afternoon, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, risk assets like stocks are once again under pressure.

Futures on the S&P 500 are currently off 0.5%, a downturn seemingly catalyzed by a new report from Axios, which states that President Trump is exploring plans to “occupy or blockade” Kharg Island.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometers that processes 90% of Irans crude oil exports — would put US troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometers that processes 90% of Irans crude oil exports — would put US troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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