markets

Luke Kawa6/14/24

Record divergence in US stock market shows what happens when it’s AI vs the economy

The 1.6% advance for the S&P 500 – the benchmark US stock index – disguises an uncomfortable truth: this week was a bad one for most stocks in the market.

The Invesco S&P 500 equal weight ETF (RSP), which treats Apple like it’s just as important as International Paper Co., fell 0.5% this week while the S&P 500 market cap weighted ETF (SPY) posted a solid gain.

This kind of divergence –— equal weight down at least 0.5% and market cap up 1.5% or more — has never happened in the history of these products, going back to Q2 2003. The 2 percentage point plus gap between the two is also in the 99th percentile over their more than 20-year history.

There were dribs and drabs of less-than-stellar economic news this week that weighed on cyclical parts of the market. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell. A surprise jump in US initial jobless claims. A significant build in oil inventories.

And of course, French political turmoil played a part. Since European economies are generally more levered to manufacturing, concerns about there tend to have a bigger negative impact US industrials compared to internet platform companies.

Meanwhile, the market cap index is overweight areas of the economy that (right now!) aren’t being driven by the perceived ebbs and flows of the business cycle. Think Broadcom’s blowout quarter on robust chip demand, or investors deciding they were on board with Apple’s AI strategy after all.

The good news: there’s much more money invested in market cap indexes than their equal-weight counterparts. And your gains still count, even when breadth is terrible.

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Meet the newly public, Bezos-backed company that’s recreating the sun and stars

General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

Web Summit Vancouver 2026 - Day Three

markets

J. Edward Moreno7/7/26

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

Floridians Seek Employment Opportunities At Job Fair In Sunrise

Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

markets

Paige Oamek6/30/26

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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