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The “relentless” rise of the US stock market

We’ve reached the upper echelon of consistent S&P 500 gains.

Luke Kawa

We know that the stock market usually goes up.

But over the past year, the S&P 500’s rise has been unusually consistent. In 35 of the past 52 weeks, the benchmark US index has gained. This is rarefied air: going back to March 1957, only 5% of the time has the S&P 500 posted more weekly wins over a one-year span.

On average, the S&P 500 tends to go up in 30 weeks per year. So this is effectively a little more than a month’s worth of gains than normal.

“The market rally has been pretty relentless this year,” writes Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. “For instance, the S&P 500 has posted 33 weekly advances in the last 47, which is the joint highest since 2004.”

Think of what US stocks have overcome over the past year. A seemingly untethered bond market that sent 10-year US Treasury yields north of 5%. Myriad geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East. A head-fake resurgence of inflationary pressures early in 2024, which prompted traders to bet on no rate cuts by the Fed this year. And then, of course, worries that the unemployment rate creeping higher meant that the US central bank hadn’t acted quickly enough to support the economy.

The lesson here: If the economy is growing, the US is adding jobs, corporate earnings are powering higher, and inflation isn’t a five-alarm fire, stocks can shake off any number of seemingly unsettling headlines and continue to march higher.

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Matt Phillips

Betting stocks slammed on growing pressure from prediction markets

The duopoly that dominates the US online sports betting business — DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment — dove Tuesday after prediction markets company Kalshi quietly introduced a new feature mimicking the popular parlay-style sports bets that have been an important differentiator for the sportsbooks from fast-growing prediction markets.

Robinhood Markets, which has partnered with prediction markets platform Kalshi to offer event contracts to its users, has surged to record highs in recent days on signs that its prediction markets business is gaining traction as the NFL season unfolds.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Market analysts have noted that prediction markets — which in the US are regulated as financial products by the CFTC — have some significant regulatory advantages compared to non-prediction market sports betting activity, which typically operates under state gaming regulators.

“Prediction markets like Kalshi, which is available nationwide to anyone over 18, are... increasingly an alternative to traditional online sportsbooks like DraftKings, which is generally available 21 and up in about half the country,” analyst Edwin Dorsey wrote earlier this month on his newsletter The Bear Cave, which spotlights potential short positions on some stocks.

Separately, Flutter is also under some idiosyncratic pressure amid reports that Rachel Reeves, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, is open to raising taxes on the country’s gambling companies in the upcoming budget.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Nio climbs following a more than 60% jump in weekly registrations in China

A host of new Model Y competitors appear to be paying off for Chinese EV maker Nio.

Shares of the company rose more than 5% in Tuesday morning trading, following reports that the company last week logged a record 10,800 vehicle insurance registrations in China, a common proxy for vehicle deliveries.

The figure, which would represent a 62% jump in registrations week over week, was reportedly shared by a Nio executive on Chinese social media. Nio is said to have delivered more than 2,000 of its new three-row electric SUV, the ES8, and 2,600 Onvo L90s (another SUV) in the week ended September 28.

markets
J. Edward Moreno

Pfizer reaches deal with Trump admin on drug pricing

Pfizer rose Tuesday after it was announced that the drugmaker reached a deal with the Trump administration to lower its prices in the US.

Pfizer will sell its drugs through Medicaid at lower prices, according to the White House. In its own press release, Pfizer said it has agreed to take steps to ensure Americans receive "comparable drug prices to those available in other developed countries and pricing newly launched medicines at parity with other key developed markets."

Pfizer said it would participate in the administration's direct-to-consumer platform dubbed “TrumpRx." Many of the company's drugs will be available on TrumpRx.gov (the website does not appear to be active yet) at "at savings that will range as high as 85% and on average 50%."

The specific terms of the agreement are confidential, Pfizer said. President Trump signed an executive order in May demanding drugmakers give the US the best prices on medications and the deadline to comply with that was Monday.

markets
Claire Yubin Oh

Oklo whipsaws amid BofA downgrade, accelerated future review process by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Shares of Oklo were volatile in early trading, falling as Bank of America downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy” before getting a short-lived jolt after the nuclear technology company said regulators accepted a key design report faster than anticipated. The stock is down about 3% as of 10:05 a.m. ET.

“Valuations now embed deployment ramps and discount rates we view as unrealistic at this stage of SMR [small modular reactor] adoption,” BofA analyst Dimple Gosai wrote. “While we remain constructive on Oklo’s differentiated build-own-operate model, pipeline conversion, HALEU recycling, and DOE/DoD contracting, we view near-term risk/reward as balanced.”

She also raised her price target to $117 from $92.

Separately, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report “in just 15 days, compared to the typical 30–60 days following submission,” the company shared in a press release, noting that “recent legislation and executive orders have called for the delivery of more nuclear power for clean, reliable energy on accelerated timelines, and this is how it’s done.”

Per the company, the PDC report establishes a regulatory framework for future reactor licensing and design activities, and once approved, effectively streamlines Oklo’s deployment of advanced reactors by reducing unnecessary steps in the licensing process.

In a note published on Monday, Barclays analysts wrote that “government approval of each step of the process is one of the largest moats in the space,” especially considering the “prolonged, expensive, and complex” regulatory framework under the NRC.

Oklo is up 65% in the past month, riding a wave of investor enthusiasm for clean power plays as the market anticipates a surge in AI-related energy demand. Earlier this morning, shares were under pressure after BofA cut the stock to “neutral” from “buy.”

Separately, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report “in just 15 days, compared to the typical 30–60 days following submission,” the company shared in a press release, noting that “recent legislation and executive orders have called for the delivery of more nuclear power for clean, reliable energy on accelerated timelines, and this is how it’s done.”

Per the company, the PDC report establishes a regulatory framework for future reactor licensing and design activities, and once approved, effectively streamlines Oklo’s deployment of advanced reactors by reducing unnecessary steps in the licensing process.

In a note published on Monday, Barclays analysts wrote that “government approval of each step of the process is one of the largest moats in the space,” especially considering the “prolonged, expensive, and complex” regulatory framework under the NRC.

Oklo is up 65% in the past month, riding a wave of investor enthusiasm for clean power plays as the market anticipates a surge in AI-related energy demand. Earlier this morning, shares were under pressure after BofA cut the stock to “neutral” from “buy.”

markets
Luke Kawa

Retail traders rush into Wolfspeed as it exits Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Wolfspeed is in the midst of completing a very peculiar double act.

Shares of the embattled silicon carbide semiconductor maker are roaring higher in the premarket session after the company announced after the close on Monday that it has successfully completed its restructuring process and is exiting the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process.

The stock also nearly doubled on July 1 after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy!

As of 8:15 a.m. ET, Wolfspeed is among the most mentioned and most positively mentioned tickers on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets over the past 12 hours, per SwaggyStocks data.

SwaggyStocks WSB mentions
Source: SwaggyStocks

Betting on a very beaten-down company — or outright providing the fuel for a second lease on life — has been a popular strategy among retail traders in search of asymmetry. Opendoor Technologies might be the most recent example of this phenomenon, but the best one is probably Hertz, which retail traders flocked to during the pandemic in 2020 even as the car rental company filed for Chapter 11.

On Monday, the company issued new shares and canceled its old stock as part of this restructuring plan, significantly diluting its preexisting shareholder base.

“Through the restructuring process, Wolfspeed has reduced its total debt by approximately 70%, with maturities extended to 2030, and lowered its annual cash interest expense by roughly 60%,” according to its press release. “With a self-funded business plan supported by free cash flow generation, Wolfspeed is well positioned to leverage its vertically-integrated 200mm manufacturing footprint — underpinned by a secure and scalable US-based supply chain — to drive sustainable growth.”

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