Markets
Bill Gates 1990s stock boom
(Chris Farina/Getty Images)

Stocks are in the midst of their best two years since the dot-com boom

Booming profits, soaring valuations.

Don’t want to jinx anything, but as we take the final turn of 2024, it’s worth stepping back to acknowledge — and if you want to get seasonal about it, be thankful for — the remarkable run the markets have been on.

The S&P 500 is now up 26.6% for the year which, if it finished there, would be its best year since 2019. That gain follows last year’s 24% advance for the blue chips. Put together, the S&P 500 is up nearly 57% since the end of 2022 — one of the best two-year runs on record.

The last time we saw such a surfeit was in the late 1990s, as the emergence of the internet set off a tech stock boom, that, on the surface, might look a bit like what we’re seeing today. (Before that, there were other good two-year stints in the mid 1970s and 50s)

But in the 90s, the stock market grew increasingly concentrated. Investor excitement at owning emerging tech giants like Cisco, Microsoft, and Oracle bulked up their market valuations massively, giving them larger and larger weights in market-cap-based indexes like the S&P 500.

Of course, that boom ended badly, as insane valuations for some of those companies — Oracle and Cisco in particular — came back to earth. The S&P fell 50% from its 2000 peak to its nadir in October 2002.

Today we have a somewhat similar scenario, with AI-related investor excitement creating new titans like Nvidia. And there’s certainly more than a bit of euphoric sentiment at play, as key valuation metrics show.

The difference is that the giants of today’s stock market are nowhere near as overvalued as they were in the 1990s. Market bulls argue that the massive profits companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are producing insulates the market from the kind of collapse we saw in the 90s.

Maybe, but Microsoft at its 90s peak had a price-to-earnings multiple not dissimilar to Nvidia today, and that didn’t stop the stock from cratering by 60% during the dot-com bust.

Anyway, food for thought. And it’s not just us thinking this way. Speaking to Goldman Sachs recently, money manager Owen Lamont, of Acadian Asset Management, suggested the market is due for a period of underperformance after such a run.

“Many troubling measures suggest that the US stock market is overvalued today,” he said.

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

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Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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