Stocks have put up two huge years in a row, but just how rare are consecutive 20% returns?

The Santa Claus rally many were hoping for never came. In fact, stock markets did their best to dampen the mood ahead of the New Year’s celebrations, but even the small blip at the end of December hasn’t changed the fundamental story of 2024: this was a very good year to own stocks.

At the final bell, the S&P 500 Index had notched a 25% total return (including dividends reinvested, per SlickCharts data) in 2024. That builds on the 26% return from 2023 and marks the first time that the index has recorded consecutive gains over 20% in 2.5 decades. In the late 1990s, investors enjoyed a record-breaking five years in a row of stellar returns, before the dot-com bubble eventually burst and a few years of pain began.

So what are the chances of a three-peat? Well, no one has a crystal ball, but here are five crucial charts to watch for 2025.

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Safety is the only thing that’s worked in the stock market

Luke Kawa48m

Max Knoblauch4h

Advance Auto Parts climbs as store closures power earnings beat amid revamp

Shares of Advance Auto Parts are up more than 8% in early trading on Friday, following the release of the company’s fourth-quarter results.

Advance Auto posted adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share in Q4, more than twice the $0.41 per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. Same-store sales grew 1.1%, below the 2.2% consensus.

The retailer closed 522 stores in its fiscal year 2025 as part of an overhaul it first announced in 2024. It plans to open between 40 and 45 stores this year.

Looking ahead, Advance Auto said it expects comparable-store sales to grow between 1% and 2% in 2026. Wall Street expected 2.13%.

Luke Kawa

In-line core CPI inflation a relief after recent history of January price spikes

The January CPI report is out.

Luke Kawa6h

Applied Materials soars as Wall Street scrambles to boost price targets after “narrative-changing quarter”

Wall Street has fresh conviction that Applied Materials is a winner as the AI boom forces an expansion of chipmaking capacity.

The semicap company reported a top- and bottom-line beat, along with Q2 guidance that exceeded estimates, after the close on Thursday, sending shares sharply higher. Applied Materials is trading up double digits as of 8 a.m. ET.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;
Barclays, up to $450 from $360;
Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;
Citi, up to $420 from $400;
Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;
And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

Applied Materials jumps after posting better-than-expected Q1 results, strong Q2 outlook

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;
Barclays, up to $450 from $360;
Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;
Citi, up to $420 from $400;
Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;
And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna reports Q4 earnings beat, upbeat 2026 outlook

The report comes after Moderna said the FDA is refusing to consider an application for its mRNA flu vaccine.

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