Stocks have put up two huge years in a row, but just how rare are consecutive 20% returns?

The Santa Claus rally many were hoping for never came. In fact, stock markets did their best to dampen the mood ahead of the New Year’s celebrations, but even the small blip at the end of December hasn’t changed the fundamental story of 2024: this was a very good year to own stocks.

At the final bell, the S&P 500 Index had notched a 25% total return (including dividends reinvested, per SlickCharts data) in 2024. That builds on the 26% return from 2023 and marks the first time that the index has recorded consecutive gains over 20% in 2.5 decades. In the late 1990s, investors enjoyed a record-breaking five years in a row of stellar returns, before the dot-com bubble eventually burst and a few years of pain began.

So what are the chances of a three-peat? Well, no one has a crystal ball, but here are five crucial charts to watch for 2025.

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S&P 500 posts weekly gain for its 8th consecutive week

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Hardware stocks jump thanks to server demand and record Lenovo revenue

Server stocks are rallying as Dell, Super Micro Computer, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise ride the momentum of Hong Kong-based Lenovo. The PC maker’s stock rose 19% on Friday, hitting an all-time high, on record Q4 earnings.

Powering the positive earnings report was the company’s AI-related revenue, which grew 84% in the fourth quarter and now makes up over a third of total revenue. Investors seem to think the increased demand for servers could have trickle-down effects for other companies.

“The company’s results and commentary reinforced the outlook for strong AI-infrastructure demand while indicating resilient broader traditional server and storage spending,” wrote Woo Jin Ho, a senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Lenovo’s $21 billion AI-server pipeline and remarks that demand is outpacing supply support Dell’s AI-demand momentum and point to robust orders.”

AI’s insatiable computing demand is reshaping the hardware industry and driving up server demand.

Dell will report first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 28.

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The D-Wave 2X quantum system, is operated at the NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility's Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, Calif., as seen on Tuesday December 8, 2015.

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Ross Stores surges as Q1 results beat expectations, full-year guidance raised

Ross shares are rising after the company delivered strong Q1 results, with sales topping Wall Street’s projections.

The stock soared 6.3% just after the open.

Key numbers:

Earnings per share of $2.02 vs. $1.47 year over year (estimate: $1.72).
Sales of $6.01 billion, up 21% year over year (estimate: $5.61 billion).
Comparable sales growth of 17% (estimate: 8.58%).

CEO Jim Conroy attributed the results to better traffic in stores. “Customer traffic was the primary driver of the strong sales trend as compelling merchandise assortments, higher customer acquisition and engagement from our ongoing marketing initiatives, and an improved in‑store experience are resonating with shoppers.”

The company also noted that transaction volume grew across all key demographics, including “income levels, ethnicities, and age groups, including younger customers.” Sales were also likely buoyed by standard seasonal tailwinds, including consumer spending from tax refunds.

Backed by the strong quarter, the company lifted its full-year targets. Ross now projects same-store sales growth of 6% to 7%, up from the prior forecast of 3% to 4%, topping Wall Street’s estimate of 4.64%. It boosted its annual EPS guidance to a range of $7.50 to $7.74, versus the prior outlook of $7.02 to $7.36.

Ross Stores has been one of the retail sector’s standout performers this year, rising around 20% year to date as of Thursday’s close.

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