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Luke Kawa

Stocks dip after hottest July producer price growth since 2022

ETFs that track major US stock indexes, such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Invesco QQQ Trust, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF, slumped ahead of market open after July’s reading of the producer price index came in much hotter than anticipated.

The PPI and core PPI (ex-energy and food) each jumped 0.9% month on month, while both had been expected to bump up just 0.2%.

Financial services inflation was a big driver of the rise, especially portfolio management. This typically tracks the direction of the stock market and serves as an input into PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price pressures.

“The broader tone in the data seems hot enough it’s hard to shrug off,” Peter Williams, an economist at 22V Research, wrote. “PPI services ex-trade was hotter than all but four months after covid hit; overall core final demand PPI was the hottest since early 2022.”

That being said, this negative surprise on producer price growth isn’t upending expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do in September — that is, cut rates by 25 basis points. About 24 basis points of easing is priced in, little changed from the knee-jerk reaction to Tuesday’s CPI inflation data.

It’s not often you see producer price index data prompt a noteworthy reaction from the stock market. But it’s also not often that we’re wrestling over how an economy will digest a significant increase in tariff rates.

(Tariffs themselves are excluded from PPI data, but the pricing changes that these domestic producers make in response to tariffs do make their way into the data.)

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Max Knoblauch

Airlines climb as market prices in medium-term oil supply relief amid US-Venezuela tensions

US airlines are climbing on Monday, despite higher oil prices amid escalating US-Venezuela tensions following the US’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

The price action follows a weekend of disrupted travel for airlines, as the FAA ordered carriers to avoid large swaths of Caribbean airspace following US strikes. The agency’s restrictions expired on Sunday.

Delta Air Lines, which reached an all-time high on Monday, said it had "proactively added more than 2,600 seats through extra flights across its Caribbean network for Monday, Jan. 5." The carrier expects flights to the region to normalize by Tuesday. American Airlines said it’s added about 7,000 extra seats to temporarily boost its capacity.

While crude futures rose on the US-Venezuela tensions (West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 1.7% Monday afternoon), the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term relief due to the possibility of Venezuela’s reserves getting more developed. US oil companies are similarly rising in Monday trading.

markets
Matt Phillips

Duolingo jumps following BofA upgrade

Duolingo shares are down over 60% since hitting their peak last May, as slowing quarterly growth in key metrics like daily active users prompted analysts to sharply cut their long-term estimates for the company’s growth potential.

“We disagree,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday upgrading the stock to “buy” — from “neutral” — and slapping a $250 target on the stock.

They elaborated:

“Why? Because Duolingo’s value proposition extends beyond education into entertainment — a market investors have largely ignored. With gamified mechanics that rival top casual games and a growing portfolio of fun-first courses like Chess and Music, Duolingo taps into the large audience of mobile users seeking engaging ways to fill idle time. This dual positioning creates a long growth runway.”

In other words, they think addictiveness of the app has more in common with games like Roblox or the various iterations of Microsoft’s “Candy Crush” saga than the market currently understands. And that means that Duolingo can, perhaps, sustain higher long-term growth than investors seem to grok. In short, they argue that Duolingo deserves a more game-like valuation, which it will get as it surprises on growth in the coming years.

“We note that Duolingo’s financial forecast is similar to Roblox, but its multiple is significantly lower, despite its high mix of annual subscription customers,” they said.

Bank of America’s target for the shares is 30% higher than where the stock was trading Monday morning, despite the fact that Duolingo shares were having their best day in about three months. But even if it were to hit $250, the stock will still be more than 50% below its record closing high of $540.68 set last year on May 14.

“Why? Because Duolingo’s value proposition extends beyond education into entertainment — a market investors have largely ignored. With gamified mechanics that rival top casual games and a growing portfolio of fun-first courses like Chess and Music, Duolingo taps into the large audience of mobile users seeking engaging ways to fill idle time. This dual positioning creates a long growth runway.”

In other words, they think addictiveness of the app has more in common with games like Roblox or the various iterations of Microsoft’s “Candy Crush” saga than the market currently understands. And that means that Duolingo can, perhaps, sustain higher long-term growth than investors seem to grok. In short, they argue that Duolingo deserves a more game-like valuation, which it will get as it surprises on growth in the coming years.

“We note that Duolingo’s financial forecast is similar to Roblox, but its multiple is significantly lower, despite its high mix of annual subscription customers,” they said.

Bank of America’s target for the shares is 30% higher than where the stock was trading Monday morning, despite the fact that Duolingo shares were having their best day in about three months. But even if it were to hit $250, the stock will still be more than 50% below its record closing high of $540.68 set last year on May 14.

markets
Matt Phillips

Intel rises in early trading after upgrade

Melius Research gave Intel a lift in early trading with an upgrade to “buy” from “hold,” based partly on optimism that the partially nationalized American chipmaker will find a corporate partner to use its next-generation chip-making process, which is known as 14A.

According to the Fly on the Wall, Melius analysts see a “good chance” that Nvidia and Apple kick the tires on the new technology by 2028-29.

Melius’ new $50 price target for the stock implies a gain of roughly 20% from current levels.

Intel is coming off an astounding year. Why this analyst sees more gains ahead

Intel is coming off an astounding year. Why this analyst sees more gains ahead

Melius’ new $50 price target for the stock implies a gain of roughly 20% from current levels.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Comcast sinks as it completes the spin-off of most of its cable channels

Shares of cable juggernaut and Peacock parent Comcast sank more than 6% in premarket trading on Monday.

Driving the move was the completion of a separation of most of its cable channels into a separate entity trading as Versant Media.

The spin-off, which you can blame for the MSNBC to MS NOW rebrand (and any resulting logos), was first announced in late 2024. Comcast’s cable channels, including USA Network, Golf Channel, Oxygen, and E!, have all moved under the Versant umbrella, along with digital brands like Rotten Tomatoes and Fandango. Comcast will retain NBC, Peacock, and Universal under the new structure.

Comcast isn’t the only cable giant trying to separate itself from cable. The media bidding war target of the moment, Warner Bros. Discovery, announced last year that it would perform a similar split.

markets
Luke Kawa

Crypto stocks surge as bitcoin refuses to go down in 2026

We’re on our fifth day of 2026 and bitcoin has gone up in every single one of them, rising about 6% in the process.

The crypto asset is working on its longest streak of gains since October, propelling bitcoin-adjacent stocks higher in premarket trading on Monday, including:

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

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