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Luke Kawa

Super Micro tumbles after reporting disappointing results, boosts full-year sales outlook

Super Micro Computer just released results for its fiscal Q1, the three months ended September 30, and they’re a top- and bottom-line miss — but with very strong sales guidance for the current quarter and a boost to the full-year outlook.

Shares are sinking in after-hours trading.

The Q1 results:

  • Net sales: $5 billion (compared to an estimate of $6.1 billion and guidance of about $5 billion).

  • Adjusted diluted net income per share: $0.35 (estimate: $0.41, guidance: $0.40 to $0.52).

Its fiscal Q2 guidance:

  • Net sales: $10 billion to 11 billion (estimate: $8.1 billion).

  • Adjusted diluted net income per share: $0.46 to $0.54 (estimate: $0.62).

The server giant took away some of the suspense from these results by announcing preliminary figures on October 23, saying Q1 net sales would be about $5 billion, which it attributed to “recent design wins in excess of $12 billion, requesting delivery in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026” — that is, the quarter we’re currently in. That figure was far short of the consensus estimate and its previously issued guidance for the quarter.

(Hilariously, the consensus estimate only went down to $6.1 billion from $6.5 billion after that release).

At that time, President and CEO Charlies Liang reiterated expectations for $33 billion in sales for fiscal year 2026. Management has now upped that full-year sales outlook to $36 billion. Analysts were expecting $32.6 billion.

Pushing back the timing of expected sales has been a common theme for Super Micro this calendar year.

“Though large deals tend to come with bigger discounts, the company has yet to draw a line on pricing in its effort to win them, as 2Q’s outlook implies a 7.5% gross margin vs. 9.3% in 1Q,” Bloomberg Intelligence senior industry analyst Woo Jin Ho wrote. “Though the company raised the full-year forecast by at least 9%, unless its pricing strategy changes, we don’t believe earnings will follow.”

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Luke Kawa

AMD posts top- and bottom-line beat in Q3 with Q4 sales guidance ahead of estimates

Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines, with guidance to match.

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share: $1.20 (compared to an analyst consensus estimate of $1.17)

  • Revenue: $9.25 billion (estimate: $8.74 billion, guidance: $8.4 billion to $9 billion)

  • Data center revenue: $4.34 billion (estimate: $4.14 billion)

  • Adjusted gross margin: 54% (estimate: 54%, guidance: 54%)

Its Q4 guidance for sales of $9.3 billion to $9.9 billion was strong relative to the anticipated $9.2 billion, while its adjusted gross margin outlook of 54.5% is bang in line with estimates.

Even so, shares are off about 2% in after-hours trading as of 4:24 p.m. ET.

“AMD’s strong 3Q sales beat and 4Q outlook were likely driven by stronger PC and server CPU demand — similar to Intel’s results — along with continued share gains,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada wrote. “The GPU ramp-up remains ahead of expectations, aided by a gaming rebound.”

AMD has had a high-profile Q4 so far, striking a megadeal with OpenAI that its CFO said “is expected to deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue.” That announcement prompted more than 20 price target hikes from Wall Street analysts in a 24-hour span.

The company followed that up with a pact with Oracle, which said it would deploy 50,000 of AMD’s new flagship chips in data centers starting in the second half of next year. On the upcoming conference call, the Street will be looking for as much color as possible on the sales outlook for those MI450 chips.

Ahead of this release, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore wrote:

“The focus should remain on MI450. AMD’s rack scale solution shipping next year is the key, and we are excited to see what the company can do. It’s still early to make market share assessments, and while the Open AI agreement is clearly an accelerant, the reliance on cloud providers to ramp those 6 gigawatts still creates some uncertainty. Ultimately, to drive share gains, the company will need to provide better ROI than NVIDIA can offer, and customers still raise questions about that given lower rack density and the need to resolve ecosystem issues.”

The chip designer was the third-best-performing member of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF in 2025 heading into this report, with shares having more than doubled year to date.

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