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Luke Kawa2/24/25

Super Micro tumbles as Tuesday’s file-or-be-delisted deadline looms

Super Micro Computer didn’t turn in its homework on time last August. Because of some extenuating circumstances — including its auditor resigning, questioning the company’s commitment to integrity and ethical values — its deadline to file its annual report was extended to February 25, or else the company would face delisting from the Nasdaq exchange.

That’s tomorrow. The paperwork, which management “believes” will be done on time and “continues to work diligently” toward completing, is yet to be filed.

This overhang didn’t stop the stock from going on a ridiculous run to more than double at one point this month. The server company laid out an aggressive medium-term sales forecast, with management looking to hitch its wagon to rocketing demand for Nvidia’s GPUs.

But shares are down nearly 20% from its intraday peak on Wednesday, which gave way to a swift bout of profit-taking in the final hour of the day and a subsequent drawdown along with the broader market.

Reassuring commentary surrounding the filing of this paperwork has also been a big boon for the stock.

If it turns out the dogs have eaten Super Micro’s homework yet again, the bears will probably feast on its shares thereafter.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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