Surprise! US economic data are finally beating expectations again

Citi’s US economic surprise index – a gauge of whether data released recently has exceeded or fallen short of analysts’ estimates – is back in positive territory for the first time since May.

This isn’t just a case of the economic data being able to tiptoe over a very low bar as economists get gloomier and gloomier. The pickup in economic surprises has also coincided with a turn in the data. The Citi Economic Data Change, which tracks US activity relative to its one-year average, has been on the mend since late August, improving from -160 to -70.

Solid data – albeit, with lingering concerns about the state of the job market – are a big reason why US stocks have had their best opening three quarters to a year since 1997.

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J. Edward Moreno

Tilray rises after reporting earnings, revenue beat

Tilray’s biggest areas of revenue growth have been its alcohol business and its international market.

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Tasha Matsumoto

The S&P 500 finishes flat but tech weighs down the Nasdaq 100

Investors were in risk-off mode ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.

BISHOP'S STORTFORD, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: Snowfall in the Essex countryside on January 25, 2021 in Bishop's Stortford, Essex, United Kingdom.

Matt Phillips12h

AST SpaceMobile rises after favorable commentary from BofA

Mobile-services-from-space play — and retail investor favorite — AST SpaceMobile rose after receiving a target price upgrade from Bank of America analysts.

In a note published Thursday, BofA telecom services analysts lifted their price target for the stock to $100 from $85, while noting that the low-Earth orbit satellite industry — which supercharged stocks like Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and AST in 2025 — is set to gain more attention this year:

“We expect the momentum to intensify in 2026 as providers like ASTS and Starlink jockey to offer full cellular service and capture subscribers. Debates will likely grow regarding Starlink’s plans to offer full cellular service and regulatory decisions on Ligado and EchoStar spectrum transactions are events to watch. Carrier partnerships could evolve and pricing and plan decisions should be clearer by year end as ASTS approaches full constellation operability.”

Still, they maintained their “neutral” rating on the stock, saying they “await progress on ASTS 1) fully producing and subsequently launching its BlueBird satellite constellation, 2) successfully operating the constellation, and 3) capturing subscribers and turning them into revenue paying subscribers before becoming more constructive on the story.”

The market has been less reticent: the money-losing company’s shares are up approximately 300% over the last year.

Luke Kawa

AIudiophile

13h

Morgan Stanley: Most Gen Zers and millennials in the US listen to about three hours of AI music a week

That’s enough AI music to last the run time of “Avatar.”

WNBA: JUN 23 Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky

Max Knoblauch13h

Bulls pour into Joby and Archer options as Trump’s push for record defense budget boosts eVTOL names

Options traders appear bullish on electric aircraft makers like Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation on Thursday, with large volumes boosting the stocks following President Trump’s call for a record $1.5 trillion US military budget for 2027.

Both companies, as well as newly public rival Beta Technologies, have sizable defense contracts. In July, Archer CEO Adam Goldstein told Sherwood News that he believes the company’s defense side will outpace its civil air taxi service for at least a decade.

Traders seem to believe him. As of 10:53 a.m. ET, about 31,000 Archer call options had exchanged hands, around 9,000 short of its 20-day average for a full day. Joby saw roughly 20,000 call options traded by the same time, eclipsing its 20-day average. For the most actively traded calls for Joby and Archer (C$17s expiring February 20 and C$9s expiring on Friday, respectively), volumes on the ask side are outstripping the bid or mid, indicating motivated buyers.

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