Investors think tariffs aren’t a top priority for Trump, sending vulnerable stocks and sectors soaring

The market is betting (hoping?) that the president’s bark is worse than his bite.

1/21/25 5:23PM

On the first trading day of the Trump administration, investors flocked to the parts of the stock market that would be most imperiled if the president’s rhetoric on trade throughout his entire life as a public figure is matched by his actions.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund — which slumped nearly 15% in 2018, the year Trump ratcheted up trade levies, versus a 6.2% decline for the S&P 500 — was the best-performing sector on Tuesday.

And a basket of stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs as being particularly vulnerable to trade barriers, a group which includes Nike, Target, and Ralph Lauren, gained 3% on the day. This basket also had its best day relative to a cohort of “tariff immune” stocks since November 7, a session when tariff-sensitive stocks enjoyed a relief rally after a massive knee-jerk bout of postelection underperformance.

While the T-word (tariff!) did come up in Trump’s inaugural address, markets are believing that this is much more of a negotiating ploy than policy. Even his past explicit threat to slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1 is being faded aggressively in betting markets (which, however, do see smaller taxes being enacted against the USMCA partners).

This may reek of complacency, but investors have good reasons for shrugging off some of Trump’s remarks on trade.

Trump Hot Air Cycle — Source: Sherwood News

Nia Warfield

Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season-pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ending August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch in 2024, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks.

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up around 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant extended a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down around 52% year-to-date.

Max Knoblauch

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna, Pfizer dip after WaPo reports Trump officials’ plan to link Covid vaccines to child deaths

Vaccine makers are falling after The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration plans to link the coronavirus vaccine to 25 child deaths.

Moderna and Pfizer, the two companies who sell the vaccine in the US, fell by more than 5% and 2%, respectively. The coronavirus vaccine is virtually the only revenue driver for Moderna, while Pfizer has a larger and more diverse portfolio.

Trump officials to link child deaths to covid shots, alarming career scientists

Hyunsoo Rim

DEVELOPING PROBLEMS

Concerns about rising government debt are not strictly an American problem

Global government debt piles are swelling to record levels. That’s an issue for many nations, but developing countries may be most at risk.

Closeup rolled of variety banknote and multi currency around the world. Exchange rate and Forex investment concept.-Image.

Nia Warfield

RH slips after missing Q2 estimates and trimming its outlook amid cost pressure

Restoration Hardware shares dropped Friday morning after the luxury furniture brand missed Q2 estimates and tightened its full-year outlook.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.93, below the Street’s estimate of $3.21. Revenue was $899.2 million, also missing analysts’ forecast of $905 million.

RH now expects full-year revenue growth of 9% to 11%, down from prior guidance of 10% to 13%, as margins get squeezed by tariffs and weakness in the housing market. Wall Street had been looking for about 10% growth this year.

The retailer is taking steps to blunt cost pressures, including shifting sourcing away from China. RH expects receipts to fall from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4, with vendors absorbing a meaningful portion of the tariff impact. RH is also boosting US manufacturing capacity in North Carolina and pushing back a new concept launch to next spring.

RH shares are down about 43% year to date.