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Luke Kawa

Technical indicator delivers first “buy” signal on the S&P 500 in years

When richly valued, high-flying stocks reverse course and play the biggest role in creating stock market distress, it can often be very difficult to pick out a time when the selling might be exhausted. Is a 40x forward price-to-earnings multiple for these types of stocks the bottom? 30x? 25x? Honestly, who knows.

So at times like these, it can be useful to look for technical solutions to technical problems. And one may have just arrived!

The S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a gauge of the magnitude and persistence of price movements, closed in “oversold” territory on Monday and Tuesday (that is, below 30). An RSI “buy” signal is generated when the index crosses back above 30, and, well, that’s what we got:

The S&P 500’s last 14-day RSI buy signal, on a close-to-close basis, was generated on October 30, 2023. Past is certainly not prologue, but the benchmark US stock index ripped 16% higher in the three months that followed.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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