markets

Luke Kawa1/28/25

The Magnificent 7 prevented a market crisis even as Nvidia cratered

Another silver lining from Monday’s market rout: though one tech titan lost more value than any other company has before, crucially, US megacap tech giants did not decline in unison.

Apple — perhaps because of its dearth of AI prowess — had a huge rally, as investors seemingly flocked from Nvidia to the iPhone maker. Meta booked a solid gain as well, while Amazon also inched higher.

Call it protective rotation. Even on a very dark day for stocks, more money seemed to move between the Magnificent 7 cohort than out of the market completely, the latest piece of momentum behind a trend that’s generally been gaining strength for well over a year.

We’ve discussed at length how low correlations between these trillion-dollar companies are the key feature of this market backdrop that’s kept realized volatility suppressed. It was one of our top charts to watch for a reason, and just passed a pretty challenging test.

Occasionally — but not always — this holds true even on no good, awful days for the market. Monday’s session was something of a positive outlier in this regard. Some things worth highlighting when we look at the 35 sessions in which at least two members of this cohort fell by at least 3% since the start of June 2023 (when news mentions of “Magnificent 7” started to ramp higher):

We don’t have that many instances of two or more members of this club falling in excess of 3% in the same session — this happens about two times every five weeks. That’s a big reason why realized correlations and volatility have been low for most of this period, to begin with!
Of the 20 times besides Monday when exactly two Magnificent 7 stocks have fallen at least 3%, we’ve tended to see broader downside participation.

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Tasha Matsumoto

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notch new closing highs as investors shake off the government shutdown

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% higher, the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.2%.

Germany, Bull running on field

markets

Matt Phillips9h

Intel jumps on report of customer talks with AMD for foundry division

Intel shares popped in afternoon trading Wednesday after Semafor reported that it’s in preliminary talks for AMD to come aboard as a customer for Intel’s troubled contract chip manufacturing division, known as a foundry.

Shares were recently up 5.7%.

Semafor stressed that sources said, “It’s unclear how much of their manufacturing would shift to Intel if the two companies reach a deal, or whether it would come with a direct investment by AMD, similar to the deals cut by other companies. It is possible that no agreement will be reached, the people said.”

The addition of AMD — which competes with Intel in the CPU space — as a customer would be another big win for the US chipmaker following its partnership with Nvidia announced in mid-September.

TSMC, the primary manufacturer of AMD chips, was only briefly rattled by the news, and remains well in the green on the day.

Intel in early talks to add AMD as foundry customer

Intel in early talks to add AMD as foundry customer

Semafor stressed that sources said, “It’s unclear how much of their manufacturing would shift to Intel if the two companies reach a deal, or whether it would come with a direct investment by AMD, similar to the deals cut by other companies. It is possible that no agreement will be reached, the people said.”

The addition of AMD — which competes with Intel in the CPU space — as a customer would be another big win for the US chipmaker following its partnership with Nvidia announced in mid-September.

TSMC, the primary manufacturer of AMD chips, was only briefly rattled by the news, and remains well in the green on the day.

markets

ChargePoint jumps as EV sales soar

Riding along with some other EV stocks, shares of ChargePoint jumped 4.1% in recent trading. The last rush to take advantage of Biden-era federal EV incentives has put a bunch of new electric vehicles on the road, sending ChargePoint up along with Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid.

Ford said earlier Wednesday that its EV sales hit a quarterly record, and it and other EV makers have been exploring unorthodox ways to replicate the EV tax credits for consumers through year-end.

Still, ChargePoint is down over 47% for the year and narrowly escaped NYSE delisting with a 20-for-1 reverse stock split back in July. And it’s not hard to see why: the company has never had a profitable quarter.

markets

J. Edward Moreno10h

Trump admin reportedly backs off on pharma tariffs

The Trump administration will not be imposing tariffs on pharmaceutical companies by the deadline it had initially given them, a White House official told STAT.

Last week, President Trump announced on Truth Social that starting on October 1, there would be a 100% tariff on patented, branded pharmaceuticals “unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America.” As of October 1, those tariffs have not gone into effect and it’s unclear when they will, according to STAT.

Trump administration backs off 100% pharma tariffs threatened to start today

Trump administration backs off 100% pharma tariffs threatened to start today

markets

Matt Phillips11h

GE Vernova declines after analyst downgrade of top AI energy trade

Power turbine maker GE Vernova is down midday after RBC analysts cut their rating on the stock from “outperform” (essentially a “buy”) to “sector perform” (essentially a “hold”), suggesting that long-term earnings expectations for the company might have gotten too optimistic.

RBC’s Christopher Dendrinos wrote:

“Our longer-term expectations are more conservative than consensus expectations which we think could be over appreciating the cadence of revenue growth in the power segment in 2029-2030. We believe investors are already fully valuing the company on the longer-term 2030 outlook and there could be more limited opportunity for positive rate of change in current expectations.”

Dendrinos argues that the Street’s expectations for when the river of payments will materialize from the service contracts GE sells to maintain the newly installed turbines is too soon. He wrote that it will take a much longer cycle:

“Mgmt sees an opportunity to double the installed base of baseload power over the next 10 years which should support significant rev growth and stronger margins (we estimate gas service margins over 30%).

However, the first major service cycle typically occurs ~3-4 years after installation so the benefit of service price increases and new LTSAs are unlikely to begin to benefit the income statement until later in the decade and will be a gradual increase.”

Earlier in the year, GE Vernova was a top performer as the AI data center trade boomed. It was up roughly 100% for the year in late July, making it the third-best gainer in the S&P 500 for the year.

It has stalled since then, though it remains up more than 80% in 2025.

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