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The most insane trading day for Opendoor yet, charted

Opendoor traded more than Meta in furious, frenzied trading yesterday that echoed the peak GameStop era.

David Crowther, Luke Kawa

The explosion of retail enthusiasm over struggling online real estate company Opendoor Technologies is propelling trading activity in the stock into the stratosphere of the most valuable, well-known companies in the world — and in many cases, well past them.

It’s hard to contextualize just how insane it is that a company that, until very recently, was a penny stock with a market cap in the hundreds of millions is now trading more than tech giant Meta.

As you would expect, trading volumes tend to correlate strongly with the market value of a stock. There are outliers, of course — Palantir is one that continues to punch above its weight — but for the most part, there’s a clear correlation between market cap and volume traded. Even in the most liquid market in the world, US equities tend to take a little over 100 days of typical trading to turn over their entire market cap.

OpenDoor trading vs. market cap
Sherwood News

Put another way, the average stock in the S&P 500 Index traded 0.87% of its market cap yesterday, per FactSet data. On a relative basis, Domino’s Pizza, which reported decent earnings yesterday thanks its efforts in the world of stuffed crusts, was the most active in the S&P 500 — turning over just under 7% of its market cap in Monday’s session.

Opendoor Technologies was completely off the charts, trading 298% of its closing market cap (an important distinction because it, uh, varied a lot yesterday).

That’s not too far off how much GameStop traded at the peak of its January 2021 frenzy: 316% of its market value.

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ServiceNow slips despite beating Q4 earnings expectations

Cloud software giant ServiceNow delivered better-than-expected Q4 sales and earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, though the shares slipped in after-hours trading.  

The company reported:

  • Revenue of $3.57 billion, higher than the $3.53 billion analyst consensus estimate published by FactSet.

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.92 per share vs. the $0.88 analysts expected.

  • Subscription revenue of $3.47 billion vs. the $3.42 billion predicted.

  • Raised guidance for Q1 subscription revenues of between $3.65 billion and 3.655 billion, compared to the $3.58 billion FactSet consensus estimate.

  • Non-GAAP gross margins of 80.5%, a little light compared to the 81.1% FactSet consensus estimate. 

Despite the better-than-expected results, the stock was down after-hours. ServiceNow also announced an expanded AI partnership with Anthropic, in which it will enmesh Anthropic’s Claude models more deeply into its products, alongside its financial results.

Such efforts to more closely associate itself with the AI boom have fizzled so far. ServiceNow shares have plunged 45% over the last year. And investors clearly remain skeptical after the Q4 numbers.

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Southwest climbs on stronger-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance

Southwest Airlines posted its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Its shares climbed more than 4% in after-hours trading.

The airline, one of the big four US carriers, guided for revenue per seat mile to climb “at least 9.5%” in the first quarter, and costs per seat mile to rise 3.5%. It forecast a 1% to 2% boost in capacity for Q1.

For the full year ahead, Southwest said it expects adjusted earnings of $4 per share, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $3.22.

The carrier, which flew its last open-seating flight on Tuesday, posted Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.58 per share, slightly above the $0.57 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. Southwest’s passenger revenue rose 7.6% to $6.79 billion in the fourth quarter, beating estimates of $6.77 billion.

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