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The S&P 500 inclusion effect springboard is back in a big way

That temporary price bump had cooled throughout the 2010s — now it’s heating up again, per a new Goldman Sachs report.

Hyunsoo Rim

It’s not unusual to see shares pop when a company is set to join the S&P 500, an index now linked to a staggering $20 trillion in global assets. Just last Friday, Block soared 10% after its inclusion was announced, while Datadog spiked 15% on similar news earlier this month. 

Known as the “S&P 500 Index Effect,” this short-lived bump is fueled in part by fresh demand from $13 trillion worth of passive funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark, which are required to buy shares of newly added companies.

But over the past decade, this effect had been losing steam. According to a 2023 Harvard study, the average announcement day return for S&P 500 additions dropped from 9.4% in the 1990s to just 0.8% by the late 2010s — partially because markets got better at absorbing these shocks, and traders got better at predicting inclusions.

Now, though, a new Goldman Sachs analysis suggests the inclusion effect may be staging a comeback.

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Since 2021, stocks newly added to the S&P 500 have outperformed the equal-weighted index by an average of 4 percentage points on the announcement day — with nearly three-quarters of those stocks beating the benchmark.

Source matters

One factor driving the revival is that fewer companies are migrating from the S&P MidCap 400 Index. Per Goldman’s estimate, stocks added from outside the S&P 400 have seen average relative gains of 5.3 pp since 2013, while those graduating from the midcap index actually dipped 0.4 pp.

Retail hype may also be adding fuel, with recent entrants like Coinbase, Super Micro Computer, Palantir, and Datadog already beloved by traders ahead of their debut — and tied to popular themes like AI or crypto

So, which big names could be next in line for America’s flagship index?

Go Deeper: Datadog is now in the S&P 500. These big stocks still aren’t.

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Intellia tanks as it pauses late-stage CRISPR gene-editing trials after one patient was hospitalized

Intellia dropped sharply on Monday after it announced that it’s pausing two late-stage CRISPR gene-editing trials because one patient was hospitalized with liver damage.

Intellia had also disclosed in May that a patient had experienced elevated liver enzymes. The news is a major setback for the company, which currently has no products on the market and is working on a one-time treatment for heart and nerve conditions.

The news dragged down other companies working on CRISPR treatments, including Beam Therapeutics Inc, Crispr Therapeutics, Editas Medicine, and Prime Medicine.

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Gold craters as retail traders pull money from commodity ETFs

As its fierce rally begins to fade, it looks like retail traders are waving au revoir to gold.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail traders have pulled about $120 million from commodity ETFs as of 11 a.m. ET on Monday, a level that stands in the 0.4th percentile relative to its one-year average. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is down 2.8% as of 11:53 a.m. ET after suffering its worst loss since April 2013 last Tuesday. That day, retail had pulled just $50 million from commodity ETFs by 11 a.m.

The five-session average daily flows into the product hit an all-time high of nearly $1.1 billion last Monday as gold and silver had effectively become the new meme stocks, displaying strong momentum and heavy options activity.

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POET Technologies tumbles after announcing $150 million share offering to two new fundamental investment managers

POET Technologies is tumbling after announcing that it’s selling 20.7 million shares to raise approximately $150 million in an oversubscribed registered direct offering “by two new fundamental investors.”

Its prior $75 million raise through the sale of stock and warrants earlier this month is widely presumed to have been to MMCAP International, which was already its largest shareholder.

“We’ve been very pleased with the level of interest in POET by investors of all types — retail, institutional,” POET Executive Chairman and CEO Dr. Suresh Venkatesan recently told Sherwood News, saying that the company’s focus this year is to make sure that “the technology that we’re developing is truly manufacturable at scale and at wafer scale.”

The optical communications company has enjoyed elevated interest from retail investors recently as the AI boom raises the demand for data to be transferred as quickly and efficiently as possible. Last week, POET announced a $5 million order for its optical engines from a “leading systems integrator.”

Per the press release, POET “intends to use the net proceeds from this investment for corporate development, including targeted acquisitions, scaling up of R&D, acceleration of the light source business, expanding operations, and general working capital.”

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JPMorgan recommends bullish options bets on Amazon and Meta ahead of earnings this week

JPMorgan analysts who cover Amazon and Meta are optimistic on the results these two hyperscalers will report this week, and Bram Kaplan, head of America equity derivatives strategy, has mapped out a similar approach to position for upside in both stocks.

Amazon is JPMorgan’s top pick among internet stocks for this earnings season, and both the Jassy-led and Zuckerberg-led companies are rated as “overweight” by the bank, in part because of tax benefits thanks to the OBBBA. The former reports on Thursday after the close, while the latter is slated to deliver results on Wednesday postmarket.

Kaplan’s tactic is to position for strength — but not too much strength — from both stocks as investors react to the quarterly figures. His recommendations:

  • Buy the Amazon $235 strike call that expires this Friday while selling the $245 strike;

  • But the Meta $780 strike call that expires this Friday while selling the $805 strike.

Both are call spread trades, but there’s a bit of a different rationale for why in each company.

Skew on Amazon is fairly flat, per Kaplan. That is, there’s not too big of a difference between the implied volatility of close-to-the-money call options and those that are further out of the money, making call spreads relatively cost-efficient. In the case of Meta, Kaplan says that earnings volatility is “cheap,” with the options market implying a move of plus or minus 6.1% coming into this week, versus an average one-day reaction of plus or minus 7.5% going back to Q3 2014. However, it’s a very well owned stock, he noted, which could cause a more muted reaction even in the event of strong results.

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Qualcomm surges after revealing new AI chips with Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN as first big buyer

Qualcomm took over leadership of the semiconductor rally this morning after announcing new AI chips for data centers, sending shares soaring.

The AI200 and AI250 are expected to be available in 2026 and 2027, respectively. These new solutions are “redefining what’s possible for rack-scale AI inference,” per Senior Vice President Durga Malladi.

In a separate press release, Qualcomm said Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN is poised to deploy 200 megawatts in these upcoming models starting next year for inference, formalizing an announcement made earlier this year. HUMAIN previously also revealed a deal in May with Nvidia to build “AI factories of the future.”

The AI boom remains more constrained by demand than supply, and this launch represents Qualcomm’s foray to take more market share.

Nvidia, the leader in AI GPUs, pared some of its gains on the announcement, while competitor Advanced Micro Devices turned negative after the news hit the wires.

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