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Hyunsoo Rim8/8/25

The Trade Desk plunges on tepid outlook and CFO transition

The Trade Desk shares were trading as much as 39% lower on Friday after the ad tech company posted a narrow Q2 revenue beat and offered guidance for Q3 that likely disappointed investors.

Revenue came in at $694 million, slightly above the expected $685 million and up 19% year over year — though slower than the 25% growth in Q1. Adjusted earnings per share were in line with the consensus estimate at $0.41.

The Trade Desk runs a platform that helps advertisers buy digital ad space on websites, apps, and streaming TV in real time. Following strong numbers from digital ad peers like Google and Meta, some may have expected TTD to post similarly upbeat results. However, the company issued Q3 revenue guidance of at least $717 million, roughly matching analyst estimates but seemingly not enough to satisfy investors after a more than 50% rally in the shares over the past three months.

The company also announced that its longtime CFO, Laura Schenkein, will step down later this month, with board member Alex Kayyal set to take over the role.

It’s been a volatile year for TTD: it plunged 33% in February after posting weaker-than-expected guidance, then soared 19% after strong Q1 results in May. It got another lift in July after being added to the S&P 500, just weeks after we’d featured it on lists of the largest stocks not yet in the index. Thursday’s sharp reversal leaves the shares down nearly 50% year to date.

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Matt Phillips51m

Insurance against Oracle default becomes favorite AI-bust hedge, Bloomberg reports

Volume in the market for credit default swaps — essentially a kind of insurance against a company defaulting on its debts — on Oracle is surging as the company has supercharged its borrowing to finance its AI ambitions, Bloomberg’s Caleb Mutua reports:

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

Vince Carter

Nvidia dunks on the doubters

CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress dismantled most of the recent arguments and bear cases put forward by their naysayers.

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Matt Phillips3h

Cipher Mining surges on additional AI hosting deal

Bitcoin miner turned AI compute power provider Cipher Mining jumped early Thursday after announcing a deal that fully leases its Barber Lake data center in Colorado City, Texas.

The deal — which is also giving a lift to IREN, another miner turned compute provider — is an expansion of a previous agreement with Fluidstack, a UK-based provider of GPU-based cloud networks. The new deal amounts to roughly $830 million in additional revenue over 10 years, Cipher says.

The market clearly loves it. But it’s worth pointing out that this agreement is a pretty good example of the byzantine financial structures that are increasingly accompanying plans for many billions of dollars of spending on the AI boom.

For example, Cipher also announced Thursday that it would be borrowing $333 million to finance an expansion of that Barber Lake data center through a private placement of debt.

That offering will be secured, in part, by the warrants Google received to purchase Cipher common stock worth roughly 5.4% of the company. (Those warrants, by the way, look a lot more valuable today, with Cipher mining up double digits.) Google is also backstopping Fluidstack’s borrowing plans to finance its build-out to the tune of $1.4 billion.

For now, this makes financial sense. Alphabet — one of the most successful companies on the planet — needs the computing power to compete in the AI race. And the quickest way to get that capacity is to essentially cosign leases for the smaller companies taking the lead in that build-out, thereby lowering development costs and helping to bring projects into existence.

But in this deal alone, things get awfully complicated awfully quickly, as Alphabet is essentially the prime customer of, an important debt guarantor for, and potentially a significant owner in Cipher Mining, once it transfers the warrants into an ownership stake of more than 5%.

This isn’t, on its face, a terrible thing. There are precedents for circular funding relationships in industries like aerospace, as it developed from the 1920s to the 1950s.

But financial complexity does have a history of essentially hiding the level and locus of financial risks a system is building up, essentially during periods of heady optimism.

Cipher Mining Signs Additional 56 MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack

Cipher Mining Signs Additional 56 MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack

The market clearly loves it. But it’s worth pointing out that this agreement is a pretty good example of the byzantine financial structures that are increasingly accompanying plans for many billions of dollars of spending on the AI boom.

For example, Cipher also announced Thursday that it would be borrowing $333 million to finance an expansion of that Barber Lake data center through a private placement of debt.

That offering will be secured, in part, by the warrants Google received to purchase Cipher common stock worth roughly 5.4% of the company. (Those warrants, by the way, look a lot more valuable today, with Cipher mining up double digits.) Google is also backstopping Fluidstack’s borrowing plans to finance its build-out to the tune of $1.4 billion.

For now, this makes financial sense. Alphabet — one of the most successful companies on the planet — needs the computing power to compete in the AI race. And the quickest way to get that capacity is to essentially cosign leases for the smaller companies taking the lead in that build-out, thereby lowering development costs and helping to bring projects into existence.

But in this deal alone, things get awfully complicated awfully quickly, as Alphabet is essentially the prime customer of, an important debt guarantor for, and potentially a significant owner in Cipher Mining, once it transfers the warrants into an ownership stake of more than 5%.

This isn’t, on its face, a terrible thing. There are precedents for circular funding relationships in industries like aerospace, as it developed from the 1920s to the 1950s.

But financial complexity does have a history of essentially hiding the level and locus of financial risks a system is building up, essentially during periods of heady optimism.

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Odds of December Fed cut creep higher after unemployment rate unexpectedly rises in September

The September jobs report was a mixed bag: much better job growth than anticipated, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher.

The release of this data, which was delayed by the government shutdown, showed that nonfarm payrolls grew 119,000 (compared to the expected 51,000), but the unemployment rate crept up to 4.4%, while economists thought it would remain steady at 4.3%.

Event contracts show that the likelihood of the US central bank standing pat in December moderated to about 65% from around 75% prior to the release.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Job growth for the prior two months was revised lower by 33,000.

The market-implied odds of a Fed cut in December tanked on Wednesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the updated employment statistics through November wouldn’t be published until December 16 — that is, the week after the US central bank’s last meeting of the year.

During the press conference that followed the October decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a dearth of fresh data “could be an argument in favor of caution about moving,” adding that a rate cut in December was “far from” a foregone conclusion.

Fedspeak since that October rate cut has generally tilted hawkish. Some voting members like Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid (who dissented from the last cut) have signaled that they are unlikely to support an interest rate cut in December. Fed Governors Chris Waller and Stephen Miran have publicly endorsed another rate reduction, while other officials have yet to take a definitive stance. The minutes from the October meeting said that “many participants” thought “it would likely be appropriate to keep the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year.”

Los Angeles Dodgers World Series Championship parade

Retail traders’ success is thanks to doubling down on two things that have worked: “AI” and “buy the dip”

Main Street bought after weakness at three distinct moments early in the year.

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