Trump Media stock stumbles after inauguration, meme-coin launch

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are sinking 7% in the premarket.

We’re well past the point of thinking this is some kind of reevaluation of the future value of the cash flows the owner of Truth Social will generate over time. It’s a Trump speculative barometer — and not the only game in town on that front.

Perhaps there was only so much speculative, Trump-adjacent oxygen out there to go round, and the $TRUMP coin sucked some of that away from the stock.

Shares of the social-media company have also tended to ramp and peak before major events — effectively “buy the rumor, and sell before someone else has a chance to sell the news.”

When did DJT put in an intermediate top? Five trading days before the election. This more recent jump and local peak in the shares? Also five trading days before the inauguration.

But in any event, the paper gains for Trump and his family on these assets do represent a source of trapped wealth.

Trump’s association — primarily through ownership stakes — is part of what attracts and maintains value in these assets. The president, along with closely linked organizations and companies, owns more than half of DJT and 80% of the recently launched meme coin trump. It’s highly likely that sellers in such a position would face immense difficulties exiting without eliciting a substantially negative price response. And signs of an exodus would also undermine the quasi-fundamental (speaking generously) reason for being involved in the first place!