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Luke Kawa

More money changed hands trading Truth Social today than the most active small-cap ETF

Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, just had an absolutely monster day.

More than 105 million shares of DJT changed hands, breaking the 100 million threshold for the first time amid a surge of 21.6% and exceeding the stock’s prior record set on October 15. Thanks to the huge rally, the money-incinerating social-media firm now has a bigger market cap than 16 companies in the S&P 500.

About $4.8 billion worth of DJT stock changed hands today, more than the comparable figure for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the most active fund that tracks a small-cap index. That’s the first time DJT, which has a market cap of less than $10 billion after today’s rapid ascent, traded more dollar volume than IWM, which has more than $68 billion in assets.

The milestone is a combination of below-average activity in IWM (and most major index ETFs), and outsized activity in DJT. Before today, the daily value of IWM shares traded typically topped DJT by $5.75 billion.

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Luke Kawa
12h
The early rally in US stocks ran out of steam as government shutdown looms

Stocks still ended the day in the green, pulled higher by tech.

Close up of a majestic brown and black horned bull lying near a large boulder
J. Edward Moreno
12h
Pharma company Aurinia falls after FDA official uses LinkedIn to call out lupus drug

Lupkynis, which was approved in 2021, is Aurinia’s primary source of revenue.

Food And Drug Administration Headquarters In Maryland
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Luke Kawa

Cava may be an unlikely victim of a potential US government shutdown

Government shutdowns typically aren’t a big deal for the stock market as a whole.

But for Cava, which was founded in Maryland and is headquartered in Washington, DC, there’s the prospect of forgone sales in the event that government employees suddenly have no cause to frequent the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, which means emptier tills as bellies get filled elsewhere.

At the end of Q2, Cava had 398 locations. It currently boasts seven in the district proper, at least 14 a close drive away in Virginia, and 25 in Maryland.

Cava’s annual report singled out the Washington, DC/Maryland/Virginia metropolitan area as having “a high concentration of restaurants” in discussing risk factors for the company. And it may be a particularly bad time to be a slop bowl seller around the nation’s capital.

The potential shutdown would be the latest challenge for Cava as it struggles to stand out amid a myriad of lunch options for working professionals and following the recently announced departure of COO Jennifer Somers.

For what it’s worth, this is not the first time this year Cava has faced concerns about potential weakness in DC. During its Q1 earnings call, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore questioned Cava’s leadership about a potential impact from DOGE given its “fairly big footprint” in the metro area, and at the time CFO Tricia Tolivar said the company hadn’t really seen evidence of metro-specific softness.

markets
Matt Phillips

Robinhood surges as prediction markets gain traction

Robinhood jumped to an all-time intraday record of more than $132 late Monday morning on growing optimism about the brokerage’s prediction markets business both on Wall Street and within the company’s own executive suite.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Earlier in the day, Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev posted this tweet spotlighting that more than 4 billion event contracts have been traded on the platform since they began to be offered in February.

Analysts have also been focusing on the uptick in activity in the events contract business as a potential boon for the shares.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley published a note on Monday highlighting how trading volumes at prediction market company Kalshi soared to new records over the weekend as traders took positions on the outcomes of college and pro football games using event contracts.

Moley estimates that users at Robinhood — which partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts on games — account for between 25% and 35% of Kalshi’s daily event contract activity.

“We continue to expect HOOD will report ~2.5B of event contracts traded in 3Q25 which, at $0.01/contract, translates to ~$25M in revenue,” Moley wrote.

Luke Kawa
16h
“Follow the feds” replaces “follow the Fed” as financial market maxim

Taking a position in companies the US government has exposure to has worked out handsomely so far.

Donald Trump Campaigns For President In Arizona's Prescott Valley

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