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China Nanjing TSMC Campus
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TSMC surges after posting stellar Q4 results, impressive Q1 outlook

The foundry giant plans to spend way more on capex this year to meet growing demand from the AI boom.

Luke Kawa

TSMC is ripping higher in premarket trading after the world’s largest chip manufacturer posted superb Q4 results and offered a Q1 outlook that was brighter than analysts had anticipated.

The Taiwanese firm posted Q4 earnings per share of NT$19.50 (or $0.63), well above estimates for NT$18.12 (or $0.57).

The company’s ability to turn sales into profits was also better than analysts had projected, with a Q4 gross margin of 62.3% (estimate: 60.6%) and operating margin of 54% (estimate: 50.9%). Both figures exceeded the upper end of management’s Q4 guidance.

The foundry giant had already provided sales figures through December as of last Friday, which totaled NT$1.046 trillion (or approximately $33.7 billion). That figure was ahead of Wall Street’s projection for NT$1.02 trillion.

For the current quarter, management expects revenues to come in between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, far exceeding the consensus estimate for $33.2 billion.

Its outlook for margins was similarly robust, with gross margins expected to range from 63% to 65% (estimate: 59.6%). Its operating margin guidance was 54% to 56%, the low point of which is still above the highest analyst’s estimate.

These strong results also fueled gains for ASML, the Dutch maker of lithography machines key to the manufacturing of chips.

The AI boom is in full swing, and everyone’s looking for TSMC to serve as a key partner to meet demand for their products. On their earnings call, management indicated that its capital budget would be between $52 billion and $56 billion this year, with 70% to 80% of that being allocated to advanced process technologies.

This release was preceded by reports that Taiwan expects to sign a trade deal with the US imminently, in which TSMC is expected to play a key part. Taiwanese officials are aiming to get tariffs lowered as well as earn special treatment for semiconductor exports, as the company expands its manufacturing footprint on US soil in return.

The positive reaction this morning looks to be bucking a trend for TSMC’s stock, which has fallen in 12 of the last 13 sessions after reporting quarterly results.

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Oracle, Microsoft power battered software stocks toward best 3-day stretch in almost a year

Software shares are rising again early Wednesday, putting the widely watched iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF on track for its best three-day stretch in almost a year.

So far this week, Oracle is up more than 20%, Microsoft is up over 9%, and both ServiceNow and Datadog have gained more than 12%.

Intuit, CrowdStrike, Autodesk, and Atlassian were also among the software shares rising Wednesday after taking lumps on worries about AI disruption earlier this year.

Why the rebound? Mean reversion is a powerful force in markets, and some of these shares could simply be enjoying an overdue snapback.

Bloomberg suggests there’s some “bottom fishing” going on, with investors finally deciding that the price for these still highly profitable, cash flow-positive companies has fallen low enough to make them a compelling bargain.

Pat Tschosik, chief thematic strategist at research firm Ned Davis, told Sherwood News that the market may have been too panicky about software stocks as a whole, slamming the shares of software companies that could survive and thrive in the AI era along with those doomed to disruption.

Determining the difference between the winners and the losers will take a look at the fundamentals of individual companies.

“Somebody who does the homework is going to make a lot of money in these stocks,” he said.

So far this week, Oracle is up more than 20%, Microsoft is up over 9%, and both ServiceNow and Datadog have gained more than 12%.

Intuit, CrowdStrike, Autodesk, and Atlassian were also among the software shares rising Wednesday after taking lumps on worries about AI disruption earlier this year.

Why the rebound? Mean reversion is a powerful force in markets, and some of these shares could simply be enjoying an overdue snapback.

Bloomberg suggests there’s some “bottom fishing” going on, with investors finally deciding that the price for these still highly profitable, cash flow-positive companies has fallen low enough to make them a compelling bargain.

Pat Tschosik, chief thematic strategist at research firm Ned Davis, told Sherwood News that the market may have been too panicky about software stocks as a whole, slamming the shares of software companies that could survive and thrive in the AI era along with those doomed to disruption.

Determining the difference between the winners and the losers will take a look at the fundamentals of individual companies.

“Somebody who does the homework is going to make a lot of money in these stocks,” he said.

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Robinhood, Webull gain as SEC approves removal of day trading limit for small investors

Shares of Robinhood Markets and Webull are surging in premarket trading after the US Securities and Exchange Commission gave the green light to removing a rule that had impeded small traders from day trading.

The pattern day trading rule will no longer bar traders from making more than four day trades over a five-day period if their margin account has less than $25,000. The changes were initially proposed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Under the SEC order published Tuesday after the close of regular trading, all traders, regardless of account size, will just need to have enough in their margin account to cover their exposure.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

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Snap jumps after revealing plans to lay off ~16% of its workforce, new guidance sees Q1 revenue up ~12% year on year

Snap jumped as much as 10% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the social media company announced that it may cut about 1,000 roles, or roughly 16% of its full-time employees, in an attempt to improve profitability.

In an SEC filling that followed its Investor Update presentation on Wednesday, Snap also added that it will be closing more than 300 open roles. As a result of the job cuts and other measures, the company expects to save roughly $500 million in annualized expenses by the second half of 2026.

Through the latest moves, Snap is “pivoting towards profitable growth,” per CEO Evan Spiegel, doubling down on its more than 60% gross margin target for 2026. It also joins a growing list of tech companies cutting jobs citing AI, with Spiegel adding that “rapid advancements in artificial intelligence [will] enable our teams to reduce repetitive work, increase velocity, and better support our community, partners, and advertisers.”

In the same investor update event, Snap also updated parts of its Q1 financial outlook, including reduced guidance on its stock compensation and adjusted operating expenses. The company now expects revenue of approximately $1.529 billion, up 12% year over year and just above analyst expectations of $1.524 billion, as compiled by Bloomberg. Snap expects adjusted EBITDA to come in at $233 million, again ahead of Wall Streets current forecasts ($184 million).

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Broadcom jumps on expanded chip deal with Meta

Broadcom is ticking up 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after yesterday’s announcement that it will expand its partnership with Meta to produce multi-generation custom chips to power Meta’s in-house AI accelerators through 2029.

As the “first phase of a sustained, multi-gigawatt rollout,” the announcement includes an initial commitment of over 1 gigawatt of computing capacity (or enough to power some 750,000 US homes). JPMorgan estimates that this first deployment implies a $12 billion to $15 billion revenue opportunity for Broadcom.

The partnership also builds on the two companies’ goal to “co-design and scale the hardware required to bring real-time generative AI features and personal superintelligence to billions of people globally” across Meta’s apps.

It’s the latest in a series of positive announcements from Broadcom, which spiked after issuing an optimistic AI sales outlook when delivering its quarterly results last month. The custom chip specialist followed that up with expanded deals with Anthropic and Google, its most important customer.

More broadly, custom chips have been having a moment as hyperscalers look to utilize tailor-made offerings in their data centers for both training and inference, with even Nvidia pouring in $2 billion to Broadcom’s rival, Marvell Technology, proving its commitment to working toward other companies’ hardware integrating well on its platform.

“Overall, Broadcom continues to benefit from the accelerating shift toward custom chip designs by hyperscalers and original equipment manufacturers seeking greater performance, power efficiency, and cost differentiation tightly integrated with their software frameworks,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur following this announcement.

Meta is currently developing its AI silicons with a portfolio approach,” by matching the right accelerator out of its multi-generation chips to each workload needed for its many apps and services. Broadcom’s XPU platform will allow Meta to design and scale hardwares in a way to best optimize Meta’s custom AI infrastructure. That platform-based strategy will also be backed by Broadcom’s high-bandwidth Ethernet networking technology for better efficiency and precision.

As part of the deal, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will leave Meta’s board of directors to move to an advisory role on its custom silicon strategy, the companies shared in a joint statement.

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