Core inflation rises by more than expected in April
The April reading of the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation rose 0.6% month-on-month, with core inflation (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) rising 0.4%.
Economists anticipated inflation to rise 0.6% month-on-month on a headline basis, with core up 0.3% versus March.
Headline inflation rose 3.8% on an annual basis.
Prediction markets pointed to a high degree of confidence in a 0.6% monthly rise for headline CPI, with the annual increase anticipated to be 3.7%, with less than 50% odds of rising more than that.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
The recent stability in labor market data coupled with the potential for another oil-induced inflation shock in light of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have prompted traders to price the end of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. Federal funds futures pricing implies a hike is a more than 50% probability at next March’s meeting.
Prediction markets are less hawkish, pricing 41% odds of a hike before July 2027 while still expecting a return to tightening in the second half of next year.