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Luke Kawa

US stock futures rise on EU deal and reports of a longer trade truce with China

S&P 500 futures gapped 0.5% higher on the open Sunday evening after US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the two sides had reached an agreement to avoid a spike in tariffs, which would have come into effect at the end of this week.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has since pared its gains, up 0.2% as of 8:00 a.m. ET.

Imports from the EU will face tariffs of 15%, in line with previous reports about the terms of the deal, largely mirroring the US’s recent pact with Japan.

“As with Japan, this willingness to reduce already implemented auto tariffs appears to have been the most important shift in Trump’s negotiating position to secure a deal also with the EU,” wrote Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of 22V Research.

Separately, the South China Morning Post is reporting that the US and China will extend their mutual 90-day watered-down tariffs for another three months during trade talks in Sweden this week, citing unnamed sources on both sides.

In an interview on Fox Business News last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “what is likely an extension” to the previous agreement, which is poised to expire on August 12, would be reached during these meetings.

“This development, if confirmed, would further reduce the urgency surrounding this week’s trade calendar,” Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid wrote.

Ahead of this week’s talks, the US had recently softened its position on one of the most contentious issues with regard to China — technological development, and in particular, AI — by allowing major chip companies like Nvidia and AMD to resume sending certain processors to the world’s second-largest economy.

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Bitcoin-sensitive stocks hammered as crypto declines

Bitcoin-sensitive stocks tumbled Monday, enduring a much steeper drop than the keystone crypto asset itself, which was down nearly 4%, falling below $87,000, as of 12:20 p.m. ET.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of bitcoin-sensitive equities was down more than 8%. (It consists of companies tied to bitcoin, either through mining, digital payments, crypto investment, or blockchain technology.) It was one of the worst performers among Goldman’s thematically curated baskets of shares on Monday.

Among the basket’s constituents, miners Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and IREN were getting the worst of it.

At midday, the basket was on its way to its worst day since November 24, when bitcoin was also languishing below $90,000 and the broader tech sector was going through a brief downturn related to rising worries about durability of the AI boom.

Among the basket’s constituents, miners Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and IREN were getting the worst of it.

At midday, the basket was on its way to its worst day since November 24, when bitcoin was also languishing below $90,000 and the broader tech sector was going through a brief downturn related to rising worries about durability of the AI boom.

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Nvidia’s favorite stocks are getting shellacked as AI credit risk spreads

Nvidia’s “House of GPUs” is looking a little wobbly.

Shares of Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and Nebius — three of the four biggest equity positions held by the chip designer as of September 30 — are getting crushed on Monday.

Nvidia owned about $3.6 billion worth of these data center and neocloud stocks (with the overwhelming majority in CoreWeave) per its most recent 13F filing.

The AI credit risk that’s been most talked about in reference to Oracle’s widening credit default swaps spreads is also present in some of these firms, as well.

An Applied Digital bond due in 2030 is trading below $96 for the first time this month. That issuance was made to support data centers where CoreWeave will be the main tenant.

CoreWeave, which earlier this year received warrants enabling it to purchase a large chunk of Applied Digital shares as part of a data center leasing deal, sank last week after announcing a $2 billion convertible note offering that was later upsized.

Of course, it’s not just Nvidia-owned stocks, but the entire data center ecosystem that’s under pressure on Monday. Cipher Mining and IREN are also getting walloped — with Monday’s crypto tumble also likely weighing on these two bitcoin miners turned data center companies.

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