Markets
Angry Man Blowing His Top
Angry Man Blowing His Top

Stock market’s “fear gauge” explodes to highest levels of this bull market

The VIX is near intraday levels it hasn’t sniffed since last year’s regional-banking crisis.

Luke Kawa

The VIX Index, a gauge of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over the next month, is spiking as stocks tumble after the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in July. 

If the VIX holds around its current level of 29, this would mark its highest close since October 2022, when this this bull market started. So far, the VIX hasn’t yet exceeded 30.81, its highest intraday level during the 2023 US regional banking crisis.

The VIX is commonly called Wall Street’s “fear gauge” because when it takes the elevator up, the stock market is usually taking the elevator down, as is the case today.

Perhaps even more astounding than that is the move in the VVIX Index, which tracks the volatility of volatility. Think of it as VIXception. The VIX is based on option prices that give a guide on how much the S&P 500 is expected to move, and the VVIX is based on option prices that show how much traders think the VIX will move.

That metric has surged beyond 150, a more than 40-point jump. Dean Curnutt, founder of Macro Risk Advisors, flagged how unique this surge in VVIX is.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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