Nvidia Intel deal implications, according to Wall Street analysts

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Wall Street analysts think through the Nvidia-Intel deal

TL;DR: Huge for Intel, helpful for Nvidia, and potentially bad for AMD.

9/18/25 12:23PM

Intel shares were on a tear Thursday after Nvidia announced a $5 billion equity investment in the iconic, but struggling, American chipmaker.

Such a price shock suggests a major rethink of the outlook for Intel. But the nature of that rethink is worth digging into.

Wall Street analysts are already out with some notes giving thoughts on the implications of the deal. Here are a few, with some Sherwood News-provided translations, where appropriate, for those less than fluent in semiconductor-speak.

Evercore ISI

“We view the announcement as a positive for both companies: 1) for NVDA because custom x86 DC CPUs should translate to improved performance for its x86-CPU-based AI infrastructure, and it is extending its NVLink ecosystem into INTC products, and 2) for INTC, as the collaboration could help stem share loss to AMD in both DC and PC CPUs. Also, we view the NVDA investment in INTC as an important commitment and potentially initial step towards deeper collaboration.”

Translation: In AI data centers, Nvidia GPUs — the processing units the company is best known for — are often used in combination with Intel’s CPU chips.

So if Nvidia can collaborate on making custom Intel chips using Intel’s proprietary x86 architecture, it might improve the overall performance of Nvidia’s AI systems.

Also, the collaboration could mean the superfast connections Nvidia has developed to link up its GPUs (called NVLink) might start to be used more with Intel CPUs, which hasn’t been typical.

For Intel, the deal could bolster its sales of CPUs both for data centers as well as personal computers, where its dominance has been eaten way by Advanced Micro Devices.

Mizuho

“Near term, this positions INTC better as it develops custom Server CPUs and markets with NVDA, and gives NVDA a new market to increase NVLink and RTX GPU penetration, while a challenge for AMD. We believe the INTC-NVDA partnership could put AMD at a competitive disadvantage.”

Bernstein Research

“This looks like a product deal, not a foundry deal (at least for now). From the press release on the PC side Intel will ‘build and offer to the market x86 system-on-chips that integrate NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets,’ and on the datacenter side ‘Intel will build NVIDIAcustom x86 CPUs that NVIDIA will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms and offer to the market.’

“Hence while there would seem to likely be some packaging business in there for Intel there does not seem to be any agreements or commitments on the wafer foundry side (yet).

“But frankly Intel can use the help on the product business just as much given share position in key markets has been bleeding.”

Translation: The deal seems primarily focused on development of new semiconductor products that should improve Intel’s access to the fast-growing AI market, rather than on making Nvidia a customer for Intel’s troubled contract manufacturing business, or “foundry,” where it produces chips for others. (The troubled foundry division has been a long-standing headache for the company.)

Wedbush Securities

“This is a game changer deal for Intel as it now brings them front and center into the AI game. Along with the recent US Government investment for 10% this has been a golden few weeks for Intel after years of pain and frustration for investors... This partnership focuses on leveraging NVDA’s AI and accelerated computing stack with Intel’s CPUs and vast x86 ecosystems to lay the foundation for the next wave of computing with AI.”

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J. Edward Moreno2/6/26

FDA says it will take “decisive steps” against GLP-1 compounders, HHS refers Hims to DOJ for investigation

The Food and Drug Administration said it would take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 compounding, a day after Hims & Hers announced that it would sell copies ofNovo Nordisk’sWegovy pill.

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Tasha Matsumoto

2/6/26

Tech rebound propels stocks to best day since May

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed higher as the AI trade was back on.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91) and Michael Jordan (23) in action, rebounding vs Charlotte Hornets

Max Knoblauch2/6/26

Airlines rise, continuing their volatile 2026, as US-Iran talks may foreshadow some oil supply relief

Airline stocks are surging on Friday, as the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term oil pricing relief following talks between the US and Iran. Iranian officials referred to the meeting as “a good beginning.”

Shares of budget carriers, which have tighter margins and are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, are leading the surge. Frontier Airlines and Allegiant up more than 13%, while major airlines like United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines are also up at least 6%. JetBlue and Alaska Air are similarly up about 6%.

The market more broadly is rebounding on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and bitcoin recovering some of this week’s losses.

Airlines have been volatile to start 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, varying annual forecasts, and the impact of winter storms.

Luke Kawa2/6/26

The AI supply chain is soaring thanks to Amazon’s capex budget

If tech companies are going to spend way more than expected on capex, well, that means other companies are poised to benefit from that massive spending spree.

Amazon’s plan for $200 billion in business investment this year was the exclamation point to end a reporting period that saw every Magnificent 7 hyperscaler that provides guidance offer a 2026 capex budget well above what Wall Street had anticipated.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Matt Phillips2/6/26

For memory chips, the “parabolic price hike” is continuing to ramp higher

The remarkable run-up in prices for memory chips continued into early February, analysts at Bernstein Research say, driven largely by data center demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers (CSP).

Prices for NAND flash memory wafers — a type of memory used in devices, as it retains data even when powered down — soared 35% between the end of 2025 and February 2.

Spot prices for DRAM — ubiquitous short-term data storage chips — jumped about 28% in that period. But that massively understates the remarkable shift in pricing for what were long seen as commodity tech hardware inputs. DRAM prices are more than 2,000% over the last year, while NAND prices are up more than 600% in that period.

The ongoing momentum provides still more support for memory chip plays like Micron and Sandisk, which have been big market winners in recent months.

In a note published earlier this week, Bernstein Research analysts wrote:

“The parabolic price hike continued in Jan. Indicated price increase for 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC and Mobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forward purchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate, as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however may stay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand.”

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