Markets
FRANCE-LA-CLUSAZ-OFF-PISTE-AVALANCHE-WARNING
Warning sign (Stéphane Mouchmouche/Hans Lucas /Getty Images)

Wedbush’s Dan Ives warns Trump’s new focus on household electricity bills risks “slowing down the data center buildouts” at a “crucial time”

Hyperscalers’ margins look well-positioned to absorb some higher costs, but some have better trends than others.

Call it SophAI’s choice.

US President Donald Trump is aiming to shield American households from one of the negative side effects of the AI boom — higher electricity prices — calling on tech giants to “pay their own way.”

This call was quickly answered by Microsoft, which unveiled a “community-first AI infrastructure plan” that will see the company aim to privatize the financial impacts of their electricity demands on the grid, among other measures.

Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research Dan Ives expects similar plans from other tech giants to “follow soon,” he said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

And that’s not necessarily good news to the analyst, who writes:

While this initiative alleviates a major headache from the Trump administration, this will create a larger bottleneck with big tech organizations looking to build out large data center footprints as quickly as possible without impacting the bottom-line with this potentially slowing down the data center buildouts with the US entering a crucial time of the AI Revolution with the US facing significant energy shortages/issues to fuel data center buildouts.”

In November, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said “China is going to win the AI race” because it has a more favorable regulatory environment and cheaper access to power.

Ives echoed these concerns amid this high-wire, highly wired balancing act by the US government and its leading tech companies.

“With China spending incrementally more across new and existing power technologies into 2030 putting greater pressure on the US to fuel its lofty AI ambitions, we believe this will be a continuous back and forth battle between Big Tech players and the Trump administration with data center buildouts an important aspect of fueling the AI Revolution over the coming years,” he wrote.

My colleague Rani Molla noted that Meta may be more negatively impacted by progress on any presidential ambitions to nudge tech companies to shoulder more of these energy costs. The social media company doesn’t have a cloud business, so its AI costs need to generate revenues that are a little more downstream (in advertising) than its high-spending peers.

Despite escalating depreciation charges, hyperscalers have largely seen their estimated profit margins continue to creep higher. These firms (or in particular, their cloud divisions) are much more profitable than the S&P 500 at large. But there’s one company that is bucking this trend: Meta, the only one of the cohort to see its projected profit margin fall since the end of 2024.

We once again present this trilemma, inspired by Signum Global Research’s George Pollack, for your consideration:

Trump AI trilemma

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Nvidia dips after report of Chinese “ban” on H200 imports

As the Commerce Department delivers the equivalent of a ribbon-cutting ceremony for H200 sales to China, officials in the world’s second-largest economy are throwing up more red tape.

Reuters reports that China is not allowing Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to enter the country, citing three people briefed on the subject, one of whom said “it is basically a ban for now,” though this could change. The outlet adds that it “was not immediately able to ascertain whether the directives applied to existing orders for H200 chips or only to new orders.”

Shares of the chip designer are down less than 1% as of 5:50 a.m. ET.

China has been wary of allowing foreign chips to dominate its AI market, preferring measures to bolster its domestic semiconductor production capabilities. And for a while, the US was much more reticent to provide any access. Export restrictions put in place in mid-April during the height of US-China trade tensions prevented Nvidia from sending the H20, a chip that had been tailor-made to comply with export controls, to China. Though that export ban was lifted months later, demand from China “never materialized,” Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said in the wake of the company’s Q3 earnings report. Reports suggested that China banned its leading technology giants from purchasing these semiconductors, instead pushing them toward domestic alternatives. However, the H200 is considerably more powerful than the H20, which suggests the calculus for Chinese policymakers could have changed significantly in light of these different circumstances.

Nvidia is hoping to start to get these chips in the hands of Chinese buyers by the start of Lunar New Year Holiday (February 17) amid a very robust order book that could represent a $54 billion sales opportunity for the chip designer. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department tweaked its export license review policy, paving the way for chips like the H200 — the most powerful processor from Nvidia’s Hopper generation, which preceded Blackwell — to be sent to China.

Reuters’ piece also offers some corroboration on reporting from The Information on Tuesday, which said Chinese regulators told their tech companies they’d only be able to buy these chips “under special circumstances.”

Bloomberg had previously reported that China was planning to approve imports for commercial use “as soon as this quarter.”

markets

Commerce Department tweaks export rules, paving the way for Nvidia to ship H200s to China

US President Donald Trump’s call for Nvidia and its peers to be able to sell advanced AI chips to Chinese customers has evolved from the realm of social media posts to official policy paperwork.

The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security revised its export license review policy for certain semiconductors, laying out what kinds of chips Nvidia and other semi companies will be allowed to ship to China and the terms of this arrangement.

For chips with a total processing power of less than 21,000 and a DRAM bandwidth of less than 6,500 gigabytes per second, a group which includes Nvidia’s H200 as well as AMD’s MI325X, “this final rule specifies certain conditions that, if satisfied, allow for license applicants to move from a presumption of denial to a case-by-case license review policy for exports from the United States destined to China or Macau.”

Two of the key stipulations include:

  • These products must be readily available in the US for those who want to buy them; and

  • Aggregate shipments of these chips to China and Macau can’t exceed 50% of their total end use by US customers.

H200s are the most advanced chips from the Hopper line, which was Nvidia’s leading offering prior to Blackwell.

While Trump’s Truth Social post on December 8 indicated that 25% of the proceeds from sales of these chips to China would go to the US government, there is no reference to such a provision in this particular document.

Chinese buyers have reportedly put in orders for more than 2 million H200s, making this a potential $54 billion sales channel for the world’s most valuable company.

However, the willingness of Chinese officials to allow that many processors to be imported at a time when they’re also focused on developing their domestic chip capabilities remains an open question.

markets

Netflix reportedly considering making its $83 billion Warner Bros. offer all cash

Netflix is said to be considering making its $83 billion offer for the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery all cash, according to Bloomberg.

Shares of Netflix and WBD both climbed prior to market close on the report.

The news of Netflix’s potential change comes a day after Paramount Skydance announced it sued WBD for more information on its deal with Netflix.

Paramount has not improved its $30-per-share offer for Warner Bros., despite the latter’s board rejecting it twice.

The news of Netflix’s potential change comes a day after Paramount Skydance announced it sued WBD for more information on its deal with Netflix.

Paramount has not improved its $30-per-share offer for Warner Bros., despite the latter’s board rejecting it twice.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.