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Weed stocks rally on cannabis reform hopes

Federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

J. Edward Moreno

Cannabis companies are rallying amid continued optimism that President Trump will deliver for the industry and pass federal weed reform.

Canadian cannabis companies like Tilray, Canopy Growth, and SNDL Inc. all rallied on Monday as momentum around cannabis rescheduling picks up. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Trump was “considering” reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, and since then several of his political allies have thrown their support behind the issue.

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process has lagged. Under the current regulatory scheme, American cannabis operators struggle with limited access to banking, an unfriendly tax code, and high levels of debt without the benefit of bankruptcy protections.

Analysts appear to be growing bullish: Jefferies raised its price target for Tilray from $1.50 to $2.00 on Friday, and SNDL’s lone analyst from ATB Capital Markets raised their target from $2.26 to $4.50 on August 18.

Notably, the aforementioned Canadian cannabis companies do not currently sell pot in the US, but they have in various ways positioned themselves as able to quickly set up distribution channels in the event that the regulatory landscape eases up. Those companies have struggled to grow within Canada and have expanded to international markets, such as Europe.

Rumors (of which there have been several) regarding changes to the regulatory scheme for marijuana have been one of the largest catalysts for price movement in weed stocks. But federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

Democrats have typically been more sympathetic to the issue, but most of them represent places where it’s already legal on a state level. Republicans have historically been more aligned with moral arguments against weed reform, but in recent years it has garnered support, though it remains less than a top priority for both parties at a federal level.

Jerry Derevyanny, a partner at cannabis investment firm Bengal Capital, said it’s still unclear exactly what move the administration will make on cannabis. Anything short of a proposed final rule on rescheduling is unlikely to make much of a difference for these companies.

“I’m like a beaten puppy — I’m too scared to be optimistic anymore,” he told Sherwood News. “I think investors will rally a bit and then you’ll get a pullback as investors realize things aren’t coming as soon as they expect.”

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GameStop rallies as Michael Burry takes a trip down memory lane

Shares of GameStop are up more than 3% in premarket trading on Friday.

Thanksgiving is a time for catching up with family and reminiscing about the good times. To that end, early Thursday morning (just after midnight), hedge fund manager turned Substacker Michael Burry published tweets that purportedly offer a look into the lore of his time spent betting on the success of the video game and collectibles retailer ahead of its ascendance to meme stock status.

In one, he shared screenshots of Scion Asset Management’s letter to GameStop’s board of directors, as well as emails appearing to be from Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, the retail trader whose GameStop thesis inspired legions to jump onboard, and Ryan Cohen, who would go on to become GameStop’s chairman, president, and CEO.

Shares have bounced back in earnest since the stock regained support of the $20 level at the start of this week.

Burry’s Scion announced a bullish GameStop position in GameStop in 2019, and held this through at least the third quarter of 2020.

At the peak of its meme stock frenzy in January 2021, however, he called the price action “unnatural, insane, and dangerous” in a since-deleted tweet, and said that he was no longer long or short the company.

Do I think this is the reason why shares of GameStop are flying on Friday morning?

Eh, in most circumstances I’d say this is pretty thin gruel. But this is a stock that has, in the past, traded off of nostalgia, its exposure to things that are cool or entertaining, and leaders with Big Main Character Energy.

Your mileage may vary, but to me Burry’s trip down memory lane hits a few of these notes. The company is inside the top 20 most mentioned tickers on SwaggyStocks over the past 12 hours as of 8:20 a.m. ET, has seen the greatest pickup in mentions on Stocktwits compared to the prior session (per a Bloomberg Automation report), and Burry’s post is being very positively received on the r/Superstonk subreddit dedicated to discussions of GameStop.

That being said, all this is not something that can reasonably been said to have changed the outlook of GameStop’s estimated future discounted cash flows.

Of course, it’s also Black Friday, and we’ve seen promotional events be a boon for the video game and collectibles retailer this year:

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Outages hit CME’s exchange, affecting FX markets and futures on stocks and Treasurys

After yesterday’s holiday, Black Friday was off to an unusual start after an outage at CME, the world’s biggest exchange operator, hit a number of major markets, halting trading in FX markets as well as affecting futures contracts on stocks, Treasurys, and commodities.

CME Group cited a “cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers” in a short statement on its website, which Reuters reported was posted at 2:40 a.m. GMT, and that it was working to “resolve issues in the near term.”

In an update to the banner on its site, CME says that its BrokerTec US Actives and BrokerTec EU are now open, but that its other markets are currently halted.

While CyrusOne has yet to make a statement about the glitch, CME’s electronic trading platform has been run through CyrusOne’s data center in Aurora, Illinois, after the derivatives exchange sold the campus to the operator in 2016. CyrusOne and the city of Aurora recently reached an agreement to address noise complaints over its chillers, per the Chicago Tribune.

A record daily average of 26.3 million contracts traded through CME in October, with CME one of the biggest sources of liquidity for contracts on a number of core markets, including 10Y Treasurys as well as futures on major US indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

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Luke Kawa

Beyond Meat jumps amid spike in call activity

Shares of Beyond Meat are soaring on Wednesday amid heavy call activity and little news.

Over 200,000 call options have changed hands as of 11 a.m. ET, already above the 20-day average of 194,098 for a full session. Its put/call ratio of close to 0.1 is the lowest in months.

The three most traded options contracts are calls that expire this Friday with strike prices of $1 and $1.50, as well as calls that expire next Friday with a strike price of $1.

Those remain out-of-the-money call options: after its meme moment drove shares to $7.69 on October 22, the stock has given all that back and then some as the air came out of many speculative pockets of the market.

Because of how much call demand spiked during the boom times, today’s pickup registers as more of a blip on the chart:

Beyond Meat’s recent refinancing efforts, which were cited as a supposed fundamental catalyst for the explosion of retail interest, started when the stock was trading at $2.85.

Based on today’s activity, the dust hasn’t fully settled on this story, but so far: management has eliminated about $800 million in debt and all it got in exchange so far is a near 70% decline in its stock price and a longer runway to make processed peas into faux meat.

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