Max Knoblauch11/4/25

Big four airlines sink as Transportation Secretary Duffy says parts of US airspace could close if shutdown continues

The US may close parts of its airspace as early as next week if the government shutdown continues, according to comments made by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Tuesday.

“If you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos. You will see mass flight delays. You’ll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it,” Duffy said at a news briefing on Tuesday.

The shutdown, which entered its 35th day on Tuesday, has fueled already problematic shortages of air traffic controllers. This week, airlines said 3.2 million passengers have faced delays or cancellations because of the shortages. Last week, about 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 TSA agents received their first $0 paycheck amid the shutdown.

Shares of the big four US airlines all sank on Duffy’s comments, with United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines all down more than 5%.

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Jake Lahut34m

Iran discussing US proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, cease hostilities for 30 days: NYT

Iranian officials told the New York Times Thursday that they are discussing a one-page proposal with the United States to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days and cease hostilities for the same period of time.

The reopening would come in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade and halting all hostilities for that period, according to the Times. The strait would be open to commercial traffic if both sides agree to the deal, according to three Iranian officials who spoke with the NYT.

The US has not yet commented on this specific proposal.

Shortly after news broke of Iranian consideration of the proposal, the US struck oil ports on the island of Qeshm and the coastal city of Bandar Abbas, a US military official told Jennifer Griffin of Fox News. The strikes do not constitute a restarting of the war, according to the official.

Iran discussing proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz for 30 days: NYT

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Jake Lahut5/5/26

Ceasefire holds on Tuesday morning following an “exchange of fire” and shipping clashes

The nearly one-month ceasefire in the Middle East was under threat of being shattered, The New York Times reports, after a series of strikes between the US and Iran escalated on Monday. That fragile ceasefire seems to be holding, however, early on Tuesday.

US warships intercepted Iranian cruise missiles aimed at Navy vessels, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command. The US attacked Iranian speedboats in response, per the NYT, and sank six of them, Cooper reported.

On top of the UAE facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones the same day, hostilities appeared to be opening up on multiple fronts in the region. Al Jazeera reported one of the strikes hit a key oil facility in the emirate of Fujairah, setting it ablaze.

The BBC reported early Tuesday that Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a top negotiator in last month’s talks, had written on X: “We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started.”

Oil prices, by far the strongest and most immediate signal of investor sentiment about the prospect of future clashes, ticked lower on Tuesday morning as reports of attacks diminished and shipping giant Maersk said that one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection.

Resumed hostilities have US-Iran ceasefire on the ropes

US warships intercepted Iranian cruise missiles aimed at Navy vessels, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command. The US attacked Iranian speedboats in response, per the NYT, and sank six of them, Cooper reported.

On top of the UAE facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones the same day, hostilities appeared to be opening up on multiple fronts in the region. Al Jazeera reported one of the strikes hit a key oil facility in the emirate of Fujairah, setting it ablaze.

The BBC reported early Tuesday that Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a top negotiator in last month’s talks, had written on X: “We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started.”

Oil prices, by far the strongest and most immediate signal of investor sentiment about the prospect of future clashes, ticked lower on Tuesday morning as reports of attacks diminished and shipping giant Maersk said that one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection.

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Jake Lahut4/29/26

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or 2: GasBuddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social)

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social)

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

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Max Knoblauch4/27/26

In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

Statement from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

Statement from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

Washington, DC, lost over 100,000 jobs last year, the most in the US

Sweeping federal job cuts and a shrinking hospitality sector have resulted in high unemployment in the nation’s capital.

United States Capitol and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC

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