They’ve got the power: Canada’s massive leverage over the US on electricity imports

When it comes to electricity, the US and Canada are deeply connected partners, and have always been there to help each other during times of need.

That is until this week.

Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford initially pushed back on President Trump’s 25% across-the-board tariffs on all Canadian imports to the US by using an extremely powerful lever — the one that controls a significant flow of the power to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

“Believe me when I say I do not want to do this,” Ford said at a press conference on Monday.

This morning, Trump responded with an escalatory threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and seemed to have just learned that the countries import and export electricity from each other. Trump wrote:

“Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why?”

By Wednesday afternoon, Ford posted on X that he and US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick agreed to a meeting on Thursday to discuss a “renewed USMCA” ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline. And, he said:

“In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 per cent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.”

So it seems that, at least for the next 48 hours, the electricity tariffs are on hold. But Trump wasn’t alone — many Americans didn’t know that the US imported electricity from Canada at all. Let’s dive into the data to see exactly what the stakes are.

How much power does Canada export to the US?

America makes the vast majority of its own electricity. The US consumed roughly 4,000 terawatt hours (tWh) of power in 2023. Less than 1% of that came from across the border with Canada.

But the state of the aging and inefficient US power grid means that power is not distributed evenly. This is why each region of the US has different electricity needs.

The New York Independent System Operator — the organization that manages New York’s power grid — said in a press release:

“The United States and Canada share one of the most integrated international electric grids in the world, allowing system operators in both countries to pool resources for reliable and economic electric supply. ”

Power sales to the US from Canada totaled $3.2 billion in 2023.

New York, Minnesota, and Michigan could bear the brunt of the energy tariffs

Ford said that the roughly 1.5 million customers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota that receive power from Ontario would increase monthly bills by about $100 on average if the tariffs were in effect.

New York gets about 5% of its power from Canada, via Ontario and Quebec. Michigan gets 3.4% of its power from Ontario, and Minnesota imports 9.2%.

Of course, it remains to be seen if these power tariffs will happen following the March 13 meeting, as Trump has flip-flopped his way into a trade war and his policies — and the responses to them — are changing day to day.