Transmission towers that carry high-voltage electricity. EAST CHINA TOWNSHIP, MICHIGAN

(Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

POWER PLAY

They’ve got the power: Canada’s massive leverage over the US on electricity imports

The US power grid is extremely interconnected with Canada.

3/11/25 3:57PM

When it comes to electricity, the US and Canada are deeply connected partners, and have always been there to help each other during times of need.

That is until this week.

Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford initially pushed back on President Trump’s 25% across-the-board tariffs on all Canadian imports to the US by using an extremely powerful lever — the one that controls a significant flow of the power to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

“Believe me when I say I do not want to do this,” Ford said at a press conference on Monday.

This morning, Trump responded with an escalatory threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and seemed to have just learned that the countries import and export electricity from each other. Trump wrote:

“Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why?”

By Wednesday afternoon, Ford posted on X that he and US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick agreed to a meeting on Thursday to discuss a “renewed USMCA” ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline. And, he said:

“In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 per cent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.”

So it seems that, at least for the next 48 hours, the electricity tariffs are on hold. But Trump wasn’t alone — many Americans didn’t know that the US imported electricity from Canada at all. Let’s dive into the data to see exactly what the stakes are.

How much power does Canada export to the US?

America makes the vast majority of its own electricity. The US consumed roughly 4,000 terawatt hours (tWh) of power in 2023. Less than 1% of that came from across the border with Canada.

But the state of the aging and inefficient US power grid means that power is not distributed evenly. This is why each region of the US has different electricity needs.

The New York Independent System Operator — the organization that manages New York’s power grid — said in a press release:

“The United States and Canada share one of the most integrated international electric grids in the world, allowing system operators in both countries to pool resources for reliable and economic electric supply. ”

Power sales to the US from Canada totaled $3.2 billion in 2023.

New York, Minnesota, and Michigan could bear the brunt of the energy tariffs

Ford said that the roughly 1.5 million customers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota that receive power from Ontario would increase monthly bills by about $100 on average if the tariffs were in effect.

New York gets about 5% of its power from Canada, via Ontario and Quebec. Michigan gets 3.4% of its power from Ontario, and Minnesota imports 9.2%.

Of course, it remains to be seen if these power tariffs will happen following the March 13 meeting, as Trump has flip-flopped his way into a trade war and his policies — and the responses to them — are changing day to day.

Jake Lahut4/29/26

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or 2: Gas Buddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social)

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Max Knoblauch4/27/26

In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

Statement from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Millie Giles

CAPITOL LOSSES

4/24/26

Washington, DC, lost over 100,000 jobs last year, the most in the US

Sweeping federal job cuts and a shrinking hospitality sector have resulted in high unemployment in the nation’s capital.

United States Capitol and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC

Jon Keegan4/23/26

In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the “Trump Gold Card.” After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”

So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.

In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.

Jake Lahut4/21/26

Who’s next to leave the Trump admin following Chavez-DeRemer’s departure?

After a few abandoned nominations and the occasional lateral demotion during President Donald Trump’s first year in office, turnover has accelerated dramatically.

Just in the past month, top officials such as Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer have left their posts.

Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbard’s 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trump’s electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual “regime change wars.” The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.