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Elon Musk laughing
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X Factor

Elon Musk wins no matter which presidential candidate does

All the 2024 election chaos has been good for X. (We’ll see whether it translates into profit.)

Rani Molla

No matter what happens with democracy and the upcoming presidential election, Elon Musk wins. That’s because despite all that the billionaire has done to drive users away, news still happens on his social media platform X, née Twitter.

Case in point: Joe Biden, the president of the United States who Musk has been actively campaigning against, both on the site and with $45 million a month in real-world money, announced yesterday that he was no longer running for president on X. As of Monday morning, his post had more than 360 million views, while most of his other recent posts are in the single digit millions.

Musk celebrated the exposure, tweeting “White House aides learned Biden was dropping out by reading 𝕏.”

(Of course, all that traffic needs to eventually turn into revenue and then profit, which is a thing the company has struggled with lately.)

Donald Trump, who has more than twice the number followers of both the Biden and POTUS accounts, hasn’t posted on X in nearly a year. Even after Musk reinstated his account, Trump has said he would stick with his own social media platform, Truth Social, where he’s obligated to wait six hours before posting elsewhere.

During the Republican National Convention last week, X CEO Linda Yaccarino noted the high volume of traffic the event drew to X. US traffic to X was up 11% the week of the RNC compared to a week earlier, according to data from Similarweb. (The timeframe of that week also included the failed attempt on Donald Trump’s life.) Traffic for Truth Social, owned by Trump Media & Technology Group, was up nearly 200%. Of course, X is much bigger than Truth — X saw more than 100 times the traffic Truth did during the week of the RNC.

Next month’s Democratic National Convention will likely be a boon to X as well, with Democrats set to roll out several big-name speeches — likely Harris, her VP pick, and potentially Biden and Obama.

Of course, there are bigger questions out there like whether a social media platform owned by a highly partisan billionaire that’s filled with hateful rhetoric and armies of subsidized bots should be the de facto place for public discourse on the future of democracy.

As New York Times Chief White House Correspondent Peter Baker put it on The Daily podcast this morning, “When we first saw the online message the first reaction we had was, is this real or is this a fake. We didn't hit the done button till we confirmed with two White House officials that it was for real, because we didn’t expect that if he was going to do it, it would be just like that on an online posting.”

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show a tight (and tightening) Illinois Democratic Senate primary

It’s primary election time in Illinois, and as voters in the state head to the polls on March 17, there are a few races to watch closely across both parties.

While polls show that Darren Bailey is leading in the Republican race for governor, the primary election for a rare seat in the Democratic Senate to replace Sen. Dick Durbin is proving to be a tight one.

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At the top of the 10-candidate race are Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Robin Kelly. Krishnamoorthi, a lawmaker from Chicago’s 8th Congressional District, was an early front-runner, received funding and support from several Congress members for the seat. Kelly, who represented the South Side’s 2nd Congressional District, has support from the Congressional Black Caucus and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. Meanwhile, Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker, whose administration she used to work for, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

While polls suggested that Krishnamoorthi was favored to win, Stratton has seen a boost and late surge, though Krishnamoorthi still remains close behind. Capitol News Illinois reports that Illinois Future PAC, funded by Pritzker, has spent more than $10 million on ads elevating Stratton. Meanwhile, two PACs affiliated with the crypto industry have attempted to attack Stratton and promote Kelly. Indian American Impact, which endorsed Krishnamoorthi, reportedly employed similar tactics against Stratton.

Political insiders tell Capitol News Illinois the race could go either way, but they still expect Krishnamoorthi to come out on top. Prediction markets currently show that Stratton narrowly leading Krishnamoorthi.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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At the top of the 10-candidate race are Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Robin Kelly. Krishnamoorthi, a lawmaker from Chicago’s 8th Congressional District, was an early front-runner, received funding and support from several Congress members for the seat. Kelly, who represented the South Side’s 2nd Congressional District, has support from the Congressional Black Caucus and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. Meanwhile, Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker, whose administration she used to work for, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

While polls suggested that Krishnamoorthi was favored to win, Stratton has seen a boost and late surge, though Krishnamoorthi still remains close behind. Capitol News Illinois reports that Illinois Future PAC, funded by Pritzker, has spent more than $10 million on ads elevating Stratton. Meanwhile, two PACs affiliated with the crypto industry have attempted to attack Stratton and promote Kelly. Indian American Impact, which endorsed Krishnamoorthi, reportedly employed similar tactics against Stratton.

Political insiders tell Capitol News Illinois the race could go either way, but they still expect Krishnamoorthi to come out on top. Prediction markets currently show that Stratton narrowly leading Krishnamoorthi.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

US-POLITICS-CONGRESS-AI

Anthropic sues the US government

In response to the Pentagon’s unprecedented, punitive determination that Anthropic is a national security supply chain risk, the AI startup has sued the US government.

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OpenAI is reportedly working with Pentagon to hash out guardrails amid Anthropic standoff over AI safety

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company is working with the Pentagon to negotiate safety guardrails for AI models used in the battlefield, which comes as one of its top competitors, Anthropic, is at a standoff with the government.

According to a memo obtained by several media outlets, Altman told staff OpenAI believes “that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines.”

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Since then, tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon have reportedly risen as the startup insists on surveillance restrictions. The government’s attack on Venezuela last month that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

Altman’s comments come as the Financial Times reports that executives at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are being pushed by workers to support Anthropic in its dispute with the Pentagon and adopt similar guardrails as the Claude company in any work they undertake with the US military.

According to a memo obtained by several media outlets, Altman told staff OpenAI believes “that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines.”

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Since then, tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon have reportedly risen as the startup insists on surveillance restrictions. The government’s attack on Venezuela last month that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

Altman’s comments come as the Financial Times reports that executives at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are being pushed by workers to support Anthropic in its dispute with the Pentagon and adopt similar guardrails as the Claude company in any work they undertake with the US military.

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Jon Keegan

Report: Anthropic CEO Amodei meeting with Hegseth at the Pentagon as tensions mount

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been summoned to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon on Tuesday, according to a report from Axios. Tensions are running high between the Trump administration and Anthropic, as the startup’s surveillance restrictions on the use of its AI are reportedly causing outrage within the Pentagon.

Last month’s attack on Venezuela that led to the capture of Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Per the report, the Pentagon is considering effectively blacklisting Anthropic’s AI from government work if it doesn’t capitulate to the administration’s terms.

Antagonizing the Trump administration could cause Anthropic to face potential regulatory hurdles as it races toward an IPO this year. The company recently hired former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddel to its board, who formerly served as deputy White House chief of staff in the first Trump administration.

Last month’s attack on Venezuela that led to the capture of Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Per the report, the Pentagon is considering effectively blacklisting Anthropic’s AI from government work if it doesn’t capitulate to the administration’s terms.

Antagonizing the Trump administration could cause Anthropic to face potential regulatory hurdles as it races toward an IPO this year. The company recently hired former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddel to its board, who formerly served as deputy White House chief of staff in the first Trump administration.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.