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shutdown watch

Traders are getting more and more pessimistic about the government shutdown ending any time soon

The market expects the shutdown to last well into November.

10/21/25 1:25PM

As the government shutdown that began at the beginning of the month enters its fourth week, market pessimism about a speedy resolution to the impasse has grown substantially, based on the prevailing sentiment gleaned from prediction markets data.

In particular, data from the “How long will the government shutdown last?” contract offered by Robinhood allows us to look at granular shifts in how traders perceive the negotiations to be going.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

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The price of an asset resolves to $1 in the event it occurs and $0 in the event it does not. Until that official resolution, the market price of the asset varies, and is a proxy for the percentage chance the market assigns to it happening.

Based on the implied probabilities represented by the prices of different tranches of these contracts, we can see how the median number of expected days of the shutdown have changed.

The priced-in chance of a shutdown lasting over 60 days has now hit 25%, which would mean the government is closed through at least the end of November. As it stands, based on pricing data current to Sunday, the median expected total length of the shutdown is now 44 days, bringing it to mid-November.

If traders anticipated that a resolution to the negotiations was approaching, we would expect to see the number of days remaining in a shutdown decline. If traders price that negotiations are at a stalemate and conditions for a resolution are not moving, we would expect the number of days of the shutdown to increase at a rate of one day per day, and the days remaining to stay flat.

We are not seeing that.

What we’re seeing is something worse: traders are more pessimistic about resolving the shutdown today than they were a little over a week ago. Given that we are today 21 days into shutdown, expectations have shifted.

On October 8, the median expected length of the shutdown in total was 23 days, implying traders expected the shutdown would continue for another 15 days.

As of Sunday, October 19, the median expected total length of the shutdown was 44 days, implying that traders are pricing in another 25 days of shutdown.

Essentially, the market’s saying that we’re further away from a resolution to the shutdown than we were even a week ago — that the situation has deteriorated and not improved.

Jon Keegan11/28/25

European regulators will examine if Apple’s maps and ads businesses require stricter oversight

Apple has notified European regulators that its Apple Maps and Apple Ads platforms meet the threshold to be called “gatekeepers” under the European Commission’s Digital Markets Act, the European Commission said.

European antitrust regulators will now examine if the tech giant’s Maps and Ads units should be subject to stricter regulation. According to the DMA, when a platform reaches 45 million monthly active users and a market cap of €75 billion ($79 billion), it triggers the “gatekeeper” designation and additional rules apply.

While Apple notified regulators that the threshold has been met, it is pushing back on the designation, saying in a rebuttal to rule makers that the platforms are actually relatively small compared to the competition in Europe and should be excluded. The EC has 45 working days to make a final determination about the designation, and Apple would have six months to comply, Reuters reported.

EU to examine if Apple Ads and Maps subject to tough rules, Apple says no

Jon Keegan11/26/25

Delhi High Court says Apple could face $38 billion penalty in Indian antitrust case

India’s Delhi High Court says that Apple could face a penalty as high as $38 billion for what its investigators describe as “abusive conduct” related to the tech giant’s app store, Reuters reports.

Apple is challenging the constitutionality of the country’s new antitrust law, taking specific issue with the fact that penalties are calculated based on companies’ total annual global revenue, rather than just revenue derived from India.

That global figure could mean fines as high as $38 billion, according to a court filing seen by Reuters.

The Competition Commission of India has not issued a final ruling in the case.

Apple contests India's antitrust penalty law with risk of $38 billion fine, filing shows

That global figure could mean fines as high as $38 billion, according to a court filing seen by Reuters.

The Competition Commission of India has not issued a final ruling in the case.

Jon Keegan11/26/25

Anthropic CEO Amodei asked to testify before Congress about Claude-powered Chinese cyberattack, Axios reports

Earlier this month, Anthropic revealed that Chinese state actors had used its Claude chatbot to orchestrate and execute a cyber espionage campaign for the first time. The company said that after it detected its product was being used in that manner, it was able to respond and disrupt malicious behavior.

Now, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been called to testify before the House Committee on Homeland Security, along with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kuria and Quantum Xchange CEO Eddy Zervigon, Axios reports.

The House committee is seeking information about how nation-state actors are using AI agents to devise and execute novel cyberattacks, like the one that Anthropic disrupted.

Exclusive: Anthropic CEO called to testify before Congress about Chinese AI cyberattack

The House committee is seeking information about how nation-state actors are using AI agents to devise and execute novel cyberattacks, like the one that Anthropic disrupted.

Max Knoblauch11/21/25

Joby sues Archer, accusing its air taxi rival of stealing trade secrets

The rivalry between two much-hyped air taxi companies is heating up, as Joby Aviation has sued Archer Aviation, alleging the latter stole its trade secrets and used them to undercut a partnership deal in an act of “corporate espionage, planned and premeditated.”

Archer called the lawsuit “baseless litigation” without merit in a statement to CNBC.

The lawsuit alleges that this summer, Joby’s US state and local policy lead, George Kivork, was recruited by Archer. The company alleges that two days before announcing his resignation from Joby, Kivork downloaded “dozens” of files and sent additional material to his personal email account.

The following month, the lawsuit states that a strategic partner that had worked with Kivork while at Joby told the company it had been approached by Archer with a more lucrative deal.

Boeing’s air taxi subsidiary, Wisk, sued Archer in 2021, accusing the latter of “brazen theft” of confidential information and intellectual property.

Archer and Joby are both racing to develop electric air taxis for use in commercial flight. Each has also struck deals with major defense contractors.

Joby lawsuit accuses air taxi rival Archer of using stolen information to 'one-up' deal