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shutdown watch

Traders are getting more and more pessimistic about the government shutdown ending any time soon

The market expects the shutdown to last well into November.

Walt Hickey

As the government shutdown that began at the beginning of the month enters its fourth week, market pessimism about a speedy resolution to the impasse has grown substantially, based on the prevailing sentiment gleaned from prediction markets data.

In particular, data from the “How long will the government shutdown last?” contract offered by Robinhood allows us to look at granular shifts in how traders perceive the negotiations to be going.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

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The price of an asset resolves to $1 in the event it occurs and $0 in the event it does not. Until that official resolution, the market price of the asset varies, and is a proxy for the percentage chance the market assigns to it happening.

Based on the implied probabilities represented by the prices of different tranches of these contracts, we can see how the median number of expected days of the shutdown have changed.

The priced-in chance of a shutdown lasting over 60 days has now hit 25%, which would mean the government is closed through at least the end of November. As it stands, based on pricing data current to Sunday, the median expected total length of the shutdown is now 44 days, bringing it to mid-November.

If traders anticipated that a resolution to the negotiations was approaching, we would expect to see the number of days remaining in a shutdown decline. If traders price that negotiations are at a stalemate and conditions for a resolution are not moving, we would expect the number of days of the shutdown to increase at a rate of one day per day, and the days remaining to stay flat.

We are not seeing that.

What we’re seeing is something worse: traders are more pessimistic about resolving the shutdown today than they were a little over a week ago. Given that we are today 21 days into shutdown, expectations have shifted.

On October 8, the median expected length of the shutdown in total was 23 days, implying traders expected the shutdown would continue for another 15 days.

As of Sunday, October 19, the median expected total length of the shutdown was 44 days, implying that traders are pricing in another 25 days of shutdown.

Essentially, the market’s saying that we’re further away from a resolution to the shutdown than we were even a week ago — that the situation has deteriorated and not improved.

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WSJ: DOJ approved the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal even as investigators were leaning toward suing to stop it

The Justice Department’s approval of Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of rival Warner Bros. Discovery Friday came as a surprise to the agency’s antitrust investigators, according to Wall Street Journal reporting.

Per the WSJ, a team of lawyers who’d scrutinized the merger were leaning toward recommending a lawsuit to block the deal, but hadn’t gotten to make their final recommendation, before they were told that it had been approved on Friday.

Antitrust investigators typically make a final recommendation to the agency in the review process — and that recommendation is often followed by the agency — but that step was reportedly skipped in this instance. Last month, Semafor reported that senior DOJ antitrust officials appeared likely to approve the Paramount-WBD combo.

The deal could still face antitrust challenges from a collection of states led by California, and EU regulators.

Per the WSJ, a team of lawyers who’d scrutinized the merger were leaning toward recommending a lawsuit to block the deal, but hadn’t gotten to make their final recommendation, before they were told that it had been approved on Friday.

Antitrust investigators typically make a final recommendation to the agency in the review process — and that recommendation is often followed by the agency — but that step was reportedly skipped in this instance. Last month, Semafor reported that senior DOJ antitrust officials appeared likely to approve the Paramount-WBD combo.

The deal could still face antitrust challenges from a collection of states led by California, and EU regulators.

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Jake Lahut

Strait of Hormuz is closed to all oil tankers and commercial ships, Iran military says

In retaliation to US strikes, the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed as of early Thursday morning in Tehran. The attacks from the US were separate from a series of retaliatory drone and missile launches overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

power
Jake Lahut

United States and Iran trade retaliatory strikes, escalating war and rattling ceasefire

The war in Iran is heating back up. Overnight, both sides have been trading hostilities in a series of retaliations to other retaliations.

It marks the most robust escalation in combat since the April 8 ceasefire announcement.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

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New York legislature passes 1-year data center moratorium

The New York state legislature has passed a one-year ban on large data centers in the state.

The bill now heads to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk, where it faces an uncertain fate. If Hochul signs the bill, it would become the first such statewide ban to succeed in becoming law.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

EU Commission Vice-President Virkkunen and Commissioner Jorgensen hold press conference

EU proposes “tech sovereignty package” to bolster domestic AI and chip industries

Europe is hastening its breakup with US tech as the Trump administration’s grip on American tech companies tightens.

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