Stanley tumblers are displayed on a shelf at a Dick's Sporting Goods

(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Tumbling into oblivion: This product is arguably the most uniquely screwed by the tariffs on China

Stanley and Yeti’s distinctive insulated tumblers come from China. What these big cups could cost after trade war increases might cause you to spit out your drink.

Jon Keegan

4/21/25 11:14AM

Recently we took a deep dive into trade data, looking at what goods we imported almost exclusively from China. One of the top categories of goods was described in the weird, verbose language of international trade as:

"VACUUM FLASKS AND OTHER VACUUM VESSELS, COMPLETE WITH CASES; PARTS THEREOF OTHER THAN GLASS INNERS."

Turns out that the US imported more than $1.6 billion worth of vacuum flasks and parts in 2024, and China supplied 96% of our imports of this category.

So what are they exactly?

Basically this category covers metallic insulated bottles, like thermos mugs, insulated travel coffee mugs, and tumblers. These happen to be really complicated things to make, with many manual steps, as you can see from this oddly fascinating video (do yourself a favor and turn the sound off):

Stanley

One of the most successful companies in this category is Stanley. The privately owned, 112-year-old brand is probably most well known for a single product that became an unlikely hit and was even the target of a “Saturday Night Live” skit poking fun at the popular “big dumb cups.”

That’s right — it’s the company’s iconic 40-ounce “Quencher Flowstate Tumblers.” Launched into fame by influencers on TikTok who introduced the product to thirsty women during Covid, the colorful tumblers have a cultlike following. In four years, Stanley’s sales went from $73 million in 2019 to $750 million in 2023, CNBC reported.

Stanley even has its own official loyalty program featuring early access to new tumbler “drops,” with special perks for superfans who collect the most points. Buyers can customize their Quencher Flowstate Tumblers with 32 different colors, along with custom graphics and engraved monograms.

Stanley website — (Photo: stanley1913.com)

Ship manifest data from ImportYeti shows that in the past year, PMI Worldwide — Stanley’s parent company — imported vacuum flasks via sea shipments mainly from suppliers in China, with a smaller amount coming from Vietnam and Thailand. While the company may have other suppliers delivering goods over land or via air shipping that would not show up in this data, having such reliance on Chinese suppliers for its star product could cause some pain for the company.

A 40-ounce Quencher H2.0 Flowstate Tumbler (in Cornflower Gloss) sells for $45 on Stanley’s website. If subjected to the full 145% tariff on Chinese imports, that bright blue tumbler could cost $110, a price that even Stanley die-hards might find hard to swallow.

Yeti

Another company that may not be insulated from the effects of President Trump’s tariffs is Yeti, maker of rugged coolers and travel mugs.

In 2024, Yeti’s total revenue was $1.83 billion, and 60% of that (just over $1 billion) came from its drinkware line, most of which features mugs and tumblers with “kitchen-grade, 18/8 stainless-steel, double-wall vacuum insulation,” according to the company’s 2024 annual report.

The company said that it does not own any of its own manufacturing facilities, and that just two manufacturers made up 74% of its drinkware supply in 2024. ImportYeti data (no relation) also shows that the vast majority of Yeti’s sea shipments of vacuum flasks originated from China.

Yeti warned in its annual report about the significant negative impact higher tariffs could have on the business:

“Tariffs have the potential to significantly raise the cost of our products. In such a case, there can be no assurance that we will be able to shift manufacturing and supply agreements to non-impacted countries, including the United States, to reduce the effects of the tariffs.”

The company also predicted that steep tariffs would eat away at profit margins:

“As a result, we may suffer margin erosion or be required to raise our prices, which may result in the loss of customers, negatively impact our results of operations, or otherwise harm our business. In addition, the imposition of tariffs on products that we export to international markets could make such products more expensive compared to those of our competitors if we pass related additional costs on to our customers, which may also result in the loss of customers, negatively impact our results of operations, or otherwise harm our business.”

Yeti’s Rambler 64-ounce insulated water bottle in “key lime” sells for $65 on the company’s website. If the full 145% tariffs were applied to this bottle, it could cost up to $159.

Yeti and Stanley did not respond to a request for comment.

Jake Lahut4/29/26

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or 2: Gas Buddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Patrick De Haan (@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social)

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

Max Knoblauch4/27/26

In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

Statement from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Millie Giles

CAPITOL LOSSES

4/24/26

Washington, DC, lost over 100,000 jobs last year, the most in the US

Sweeping federal job cuts and a shrinking hospitality sector have resulted in high unemployment in the nation’s capital.

United States Capitol and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC

Jon Keegan4/23/26

In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the “Trump Gold Card.” After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”

So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.

In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.

Jake Lahut4/21/26

Who’s next to leave the Trump admin following Chavez-DeRemer’s departure?

After a few abandoned nominations and the occasional lateral demotion during President Donald Trump’s first year in office, turnover has accelerated dramatically.

Just in the past month, top officials such as Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer have left their posts.

Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbard’s 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trump’s electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual “regime change wars.” The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.