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President Trump Holds "Make America Wealthy Again Event" In White House Rose Garden
President Donald Trump, April 2, 2025 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump’s new levies could drive US tariff rates to their highest in over a century, economists say

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Yale’s Budget Lab warn that the effective US tariff rate could rise by nearly 20 percentage points.

President Trump’s newly unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs could lift the US tariff rate to levels not seen in more than a century, according to economists. Stock markets sold off around the world, and both the SPDR S&P 500 Trust and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by ETFs like the Invesco QQQ Trust, have opened down sharply this morning.

The sweeping new measures target most major US trading partners (excluding Canada and Mexico) with rates ranging from 50% on the tiny French territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon (population of ~6,000) to 20% on the European Union and 10% baseline on all countries.

Even a few uninhabited islands didn’t escape the import taxes.

In a note published last night, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by the firm’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, estimated that this year’s tariff actions could raise the US effective tariff rate by 18.8 percentage points, up from their earlier forecast of 15 percentage points. That would push the rate into the 21% to 22% range — the highest since 1909, according to data from Yale University’s Budget Lab.

Effective tariff rates
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While Canada and Mexico received “better treatment” than expected, spared from further hikes and remaining at the 25% level announced earlier this year, Asian exporters took a sharper hit: China now faces a 34% reciprocal tariff, bringing its total tariff burden to 54% when added to the earlier 20%. Vietnam was hit with a 46% rate, while Thailand and Taiwan face 36% and 32%, respectively.

Those numbers could climb even higher. Roughly one-third of imported goods — about $1.1 trillion worth — are excluded from yesterday’s tariffs, including steel, autos, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, which softened the immediate impact. Goldman warns that sectoral tariffs targeting these industries could come later this year with “high probability,” which would push the effective tariff rate up further. And that’s without considering the second-order effects of potential retaliation.

Other analysts have given similar estimates: Bloomberg Economics puts the average effective US tariff rate at 23%, while Yale’s Budget Lab puts it at 22.5%.

With markets falling this morning, Wall Street’s new strategy: hope that these tariffs aren’t real.

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Jake Lahut

Strait of Hormuz is closed to all oil tankers and commercial ships, Iran military says

In retaliation to US strikes, the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed as of early Thursday morning in Tehran. The attacks from the US were separate from a series of retaliatory drone and missile launches overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

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Jake Lahut

United States and Iran trade retaliatory strikes, escalating war and rattling ceasefire

The war in Iran is heating back up. Overnight, both sides have been trading hostilities in a series of retaliations to other retaliations.

It marks the most robust escalation in combat since the April 8 ceasefire announcement.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

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New York legislature passes 1-year data center moratorium

The New York state legislature has passed a one-year ban on large data centers in the state.

The bill now heads to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk, where it faces an uncertain fate. If Hochul signs the bill, it would become the first such statewide ban to succeed in becoming law.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

EU Commission Vice-President Virkkunen and Commissioner Jorgensen hold press conference

EU proposes “tech sovereignty package” to bolster domestic AI and chip industries

Europe is hastening its breakup with US tech as the Trump administration’s grip on American tech companies tightens.

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White House releases watered-down executive order on AI

The White House released a weakened executive order on AI on Tuesday, a little more than a week after killing a previous version of the order after what was reportedly intense, direct lobbying of the Oval Office by tech executives.

The order’s most significant change to what was reported in late May is a shortened window of voluntary government review of new models from 90 days to 30 days.

After Anthropic’s Mythos model spooked companies and governments around the world, the White House was reportedly ready to respond with an executive order that would have given the government access to unreleased frontier models for up to 90 days before public release, to ensure safety.

Top AI companies were briefed on the proposed executive order, and a White House event with an extensive roster of tech executives was ready to go, but it was killed at the last minute, according to reports. Axios reported that last-minute lobbying by former White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, along with other tech executives, helped convince President Trump to kill the order. Trump told reporters, “I didn’t like certain aspects of it. I postponed it.”

The now finalized order calls for the creation of an “AI cybersecurity clearinghouse” in concert with the AI industry, and directs national security agencies to develop and maintain a “classified benchmarking process” to review the capabilities of new frontier models.

After Anthropic’s Mythos model spooked companies and governments around the world, the White House was reportedly ready to respond with an executive order that would have given the government access to unreleased frontier models for up to 90 days before public release, to ensure safety.

Top AI companies were briefed on the proposed executive order, and a White House event with an extensive roster of tech executives was ready to go, but it was killed at the last minute, according to reports. Axios reported that last-minute lobbying by former White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, along with other tech executives, helped convince President Trump to kill the order. Trump told reporters, “I didn’t like certain aspects of it. I postponed it.”

The now finalized order calls for the creation of an “AI cybersecurity clearinghouse” in concert with the AI industry, and directs national security agencies to develop and maintain a “classified benchmarking process” to review the capabilities of new frontier models.

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