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President Trump Holds "Make America Wealthy Again Event" In White House Rose Garden
President Donald Trump, April 2, 2025 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump’s new levies could drive US tariff rates to their highest in over a century, economists say

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Yale’s Budget Lab warn that the effective US tariff rate could rise by nearly 20 percentage points.

President Trump’s newly unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs could lift the US tariff rate to levels not seen in more than a century, according to economists. Stock markets sold off around the world, and both the SPDR S&P 500 Trust and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by ETFs like the Invesco QQQ Trust, have opened down sharply this morning.

The sweeping new measures target most major US trading partners (excluding Canada and Mexico) with rates ranging from 50% on the tiny French territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon (population of ~6,000) to 20% on the European Union and 10% baseline on all countries.

Even a few uninhabited islands didn’t escape the import taxes.

In a note published last night, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by the firm’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, estimated that this year’s tariff actions could raise the US effective tariff rate by 18.8 percentage points, up from their earlier forecast of 15 percentage points. That would push the rate into the 21% to 22% range — the highest since 1909, according to data from Yale University’s Budget Lab.

Effective tariff rates
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While Canada and Mexico received “better treatment” than expected, spared from further hikes and remaining at the 25% level announced earlier this year, Asian exporters took a sharper hit: China now faces a 34% reciprocal tariff, bringing its total tariff burden to 54% when added to the earlier 20%. Vietnam was hit with a 46% rate, while Thailand and Taiwan face 36% and 32%, respectively.

Those numbers could climb even higher. Roughly one-third of imported goods — about $1.1 trillion worth — are excluded from yesterday’s tariffs, including steel, autos, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, which softened the immediate impact. Goldman warns that sectoral tariffs targeting these industries could come later this year with “high probability,” which would push the effective tariff rate up further. And that’s without considering the second-order effects of potential retaliation.

Other analysts have given similar estimates: Bloomberg Economics puts the average effective US tariff rate at 23%, while Yale’s Budget Lab puts it at 22.5%.

With markets falling this morning, Wall Street’s new strategy: hope that these tariffs aren’t real.

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Jake Lahut

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or two: Gas Buddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

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In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

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Jon Keegan

In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the Trump Gold Card. After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”

So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.

In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.

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Jake Lahut

Who’s next to leave the Trump admin following Chavez-DeRemer’s departure?

After a few abandoned nominations and the occasional lateral demotion during President Donald Trumps first year in office, turnover has accelerated dramatically.

Just in the past month, top officials such as Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer have left their posts.

Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbards 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trumps electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual regime change wars. The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trumps former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

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Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Loading...
 

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbards 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trumps electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual regime change wars. The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trumps former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

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