Sherwood
Monday Nov.03, 2025

🐂 Bulls without a China shop

China Exposed Stocks Lead Despite Higher Tariffs Chart
(Sherwood News/Bloomberg/Goldman Sachs)
Presented by

Hey Snackers,

We’ve been hearing a lot about all the circular AI deals, but Google is bringing the AI circle to its ads now, too: it’s made its first AI-generated ad… to sell its AI search tools. In the video, a turkey named Tom uses Google’s AI Mode to “hatch a plan” for a “getaway” before it’s eaten for Thanksgiving. We actually don’t hate the fun, pun-filled ad, and the masses agree — Google will have a Christmas version coming next.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all moved higher as investors didn’t seem to be spooked by the Fed’s hawkish commentary and instead focused on blowout earnings from Amazon. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%, as did the Russell 2000.

The S&P 500 is on a six-month winning streak, its longest since 2021, and the Nasdaq 100 notched its seventh consecutive monthly gain, a hot streak not seen since 2017, primarily thanks to the fact the Magnificent 7 Indexhas also had seven straight months of gains. 

🧠 Test your knowledge of finance and business trivia with our Snacks Seven Quiz. Here’s the first question:

  • Which restaurant chain rakes in the most money per restaurant?

Check your answer.

Nvidia and Apple show how China failures are no barrier to unparalleled stock market success

Nvidia and Apple are the two most valuable publicly traded companies in the world. One big thing the two tech behemoths have in common: they’ve ascended to those lofty heights despite their China businesses being in the penalty box this year.

Tariffs have weighed on Apple’s operations, and its sales in Greater China are down year on year in eight of its last nine quarters. Nvidia has been effectively shut out of China’s AI market for much of the year due to export restrictions.

And yet...

  • Apple’s latest earnings report propelled the company to hitherto unseen heights despite sales in Greater China coming in at $14.5 billion, 11.8% shy of estimates and down 3.6% year on year.

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just said he doesn’t know if he’ll ever be able to sell Blackwell chips to China. But that hasn’t stopped the chip designer from booking more than $500 billion in orders for its Blackwell and Rubin AI GPUs through next year.

Success, despite a lack of ability to boost sales in the world’s second-largest economy, tells us two very different things about these two market leaders.

For Apple, it speaks to its moat, brand, and platform, which enable its Services revenues to continue to climb, even if the iPhone upgrade cycle is less about how good the new phones are and more about how old customers’ existing phones are — iPhone buyers are a loyal bunch.

On the other hand, Nvidia is all about that AI boost — which has been meaningfully accelerated by the hundred of billions that most megacap tech leaders are eager to spend to develop and implement this new technology. And they’re able to do that because of how strong their existing businesses are.

The Takeaway

These ascensions to $4 trillion market caps (and beyond!) in spite of China challenges aren’t just an Apple and Nvidia story, but rather one that’s broadly reflected in the performance of most US stocks that have elevated sales exposure to the world’s second-largest economy.

To put it plainly: “China-exposed company” is just another term for “high-growth company.”

Presented by StartEngine OWN
StartEngine gif

StartEngine Sees Opportunity Where Others See Turbulence

$80M raised across all offerings to date.

Kevin O’Leary is a paid spokesperson for StartEngine. See his 17(b) disclosure, here.

Despite headlines about tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty, America’s investment boom is alive and well.

As The Washington Post recently reported, capital formation in the U.S. remains remarkably strong, with manufacturing, energy, and technology leading the charge.1

StartEngine is working to ride that same wave.

The alternative investment platform has seen $1.5B+ committed to fuel innovation across the economy,2 from emerging startups to VC-backed funds for exposure to Databricks, xAI, and more.3

These private offerings have fueled record financials for StartEngine: after reaching $48M in annual revenue for 2024, the company saw $70M revenue in the first half of 2025 alone, up 3x YoY.4

StartEngine recently opened a new round, allowing you to join 50K+ shareholders across all offerings and own a stake in the platform powering this movement. Learn more about their traction and how you can join.5

Stories we’re watching

  • The Buffett Indicator hits an all-time high: Once hailed by its namesake investor as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand,” the indicator hit an alarm-ringing 225% on Friday — its highest level on record, adding to the growing chorus of market commentators who think we might be in for a correction. 

  • RIP bitcoin “Uptober”: October has long been a banner month for bitcoin, which on average has seen a roughly 20% jump in price during the month since 2013. But as of Friday at market close, bitcoin was 8% down from October 1. The last time the coin had a negative price performance in October occurred in 2018, and unfortunately, analysts see many reasons the trend may continue.

The Best Thing We Read Today

The slop bowl recession comes for Chipotle

For a long time, the slop bowl and burrito scene has been a gold mine for Chipotle. But now, with competition rising and wallets getting lighter, consumers are turning away from Chipotle’s burritos and bowls, and investors are exiting its stock as well.

The slop bowl economy, charted

Snack Shots

  • 📊 Fed: At the end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, during which he said a December reduction was “far from” a foregone conclusion, event contracts* indicated about a 30% chance of no interest rate cut in December. That’s edged up to 33% after Friday, when some of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish officials were out in force making the case against any further easing in monetary policy.

  • 🗽 NYC Election: Tomorrow is Election Day in New York City, and the upstart campaign of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani appears favored to win, with prediction markets giving the Queens legislator a 92% chance of becoming mayor over rivals Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa.

  • 🏈 Monday Night Football: It’s the Arizona Cardinals up against the Dallas Cowboys tonight, and traders are giving the edge to Dallas with a 59% chance of victory. 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

Presented by CME Group
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6Margin comes with increased risks. Losses as well as gains will be magnified with the greater amount borrowed.

What Else We're Snackin'

Snack Fact Of The Day

The first futures market started in Japan in the 17th century.

This Week's Earnings

M

Earnings expected from ON Semiconductor, Cipher Mining, FuboTV, Ryanair, Palantir, Hims & Hers, Realty Income, and Clorox

T

Earnings expected from Uber, Shopify, Spotify, Pfizer, Norwegian Cruise Line, SNDL, Hertz, Yum! Brands, AMD, Astera Labs, Beyond Meat, Pinterest, Cava, Amgen, Match Group, MARA Holdings, Tempus AI, Super Micro Computer, Rivian, and Live Nation

W

 Earnings expected from Novo Nordisk, Humana, McDonald’s, Robinhood, AppLovin, AMC, Qualcomm, IonQ, Snap, Duolingo, DoorDash, Lyft, Joby Aviation, Energy Transfer, and Lucid

Th

Earnings expected from D-Wave Quantum, ConocoPhillips, Oscar Health, Moderna, Cronos, Airbnb, Block, Warner Bros. Discovery, DraftKings, Opendoor, SoundHound AI, Peloton, Take-Two Interactive, and Affirm

F

Earnings expected from Constellation Energy and Canopy Growth

1 Source: Sara Eisen, “The Eye-Popping Numbers Behind America’s Investment Boom,” The Washington Post, October 15, 2025

2 In May 2023, StartEngine acquired assets of SeedInvest. Click here for more details.‍‍ Amount invested includes $470M in funds raised previously through offerings conducted on www.seedinvest.com outside of the StartEngine platform.

3 The underlying companies held by StartEngine Private Funds LLC, and StartEngine Private LLC (together, “StartEngine Private”) are not participating or involved in the offering. The availability of company information does not indicate that the company has endorsed, supports or otherwise participates with StartEngine Private or any of its affiliates. StartEngine Crowdfunding LLC purchases shares from current and former employees, early investors, and advisors of the companies and sells the shares to StartEngine Private for each offering. When you make an investment in a company on StartEngine Private, you are purchasing an interest in a series of StartEngine Private Funds LLC or StartEngine Private LLC, each a Delaware limited liability company (together the “Series LLCs”), which were created to hold shares of privately held companies. An investor will not directly own or hold shares of the private company but instead will own member interests in a series of the Series LLCs, which either directly or indirectly, will hold shares in the company. There may not be a one-to-one economic parity on the value of the Series LLCs interests and the underlying shares.

4 Based on our Q2 2025 Form 10-Q/A. This revenue growth has been driven by StartEngine Private, a new product line that offers funds in late stage companies. This product line has driven over $34.1 million of the $39 million in revenue from Q2 2025. To understand the impact on margins, see financials. Past performance may not be indicative of future performance.

See page 4 of the Q2 2025 Form 10-Q for the H1 2025 and H1 2024 total revenues. See page 35 of the offering circular and Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations for 2024 annual revenues.

5 This is a paid advertisement for StartEngine’s Regulation A+ offering. For more information, please see the most recent Offering Circular and Risks related to this offering.

This Reg A+ offering is made available through StartEngine Crowdfunding, Inc. No broker-dealer or intermediary is involved in the offering. In addition, as described in the Offering Circular, the Company retains the right to continue the offering beyond the Termination Date, in its sole discretion.

Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors. This investment is highly speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment. It should only be considered a long-term investment. There is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities.

7 Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Risks include the loss of principal. As with all investments, you must make your own determination whether an investment is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and evaluation of the investment.

Please review the CME disclaimers.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.