Sherwood
Wednesday Aug.07, 2024

📵 Google’s monopoly L

Default problems (Andrew Matthews/Getty Images)
Default problems (Andrew Matthews/Getty Images)
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Hey Snackers,

Luxury’s gone to the dogs. Dolce & Gabbana launched its first fragrance for canine companions, dubbed Fefé, which it describes as an “olfactory masterpiece.” The $109 perfume has notes of musk and sandalwood to help make your pooch the bark of the town.

US stocks rose yesterday, recovering some losses after the S&P 500’s worst day since 2022. Real estate and financials led the rally, and tech was looking up, too: Nvidia and Meta jumped nearly 4%.

Antitrusted

A judge rules that Google’s a monopoly in a massive antitrust L for Big Tech

Do not pass go… On Monday, a US federal judge ruled that Google broke the law to become a search monopoly. It’s the first anti-monopoly ruling against a Big Tech company in decades, and it’s a major loss for Google. Judge Amit Mehta didn’t mince his words, saying: “Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly.” The decision came as a result of a US Justice Department lawsuit filed against Google in 2020. Google plans to appeal.

  • Monopolies are illegal in the US under the Sherman Act, and the court found that Google made illegal anticompetitive moves to sustain its search dominance.

  • Just Google it: The company controls roughly 90% of the digital search market and has a 95% share of the market on smartphones.

The result could be a huge blow… to Google parent Alphabet. The worst-case scenario would be a forced divestiture of its search biz, which last quarter accounted for nearly 60% of its total revenue (search raked in nearly $43B). But one antitrust expert told Sherwood it’s unlikely that Alphabet will have to break up with search. What’s more likely: Google will be ordered to stop paying to be the default search engine on browsers.

  • Google has exclusive agreements with Apple and Android manufacturers like Samsung to be the default search on their default browsers.

  • Billions on the line: Court documents showed that in 2022 Google paid Apple $20B to be the default in Safari. In 2021, Google paid companies over $26B to be the default.

  • In 2020, Google estimated it could lose up to 80% of its iPhone and iPad search volume if it gave up its Apple default, which could result in ~$33B in lost revenue.

Big Tech’s big reckoning is here… With this week’s historic ruling, regulators proved that their long-fought efforts could pay off. The US gov’t also has brought anti-monopoly lawsuits against Apple, Meta, and Amazon, and another antitrust case vs. Google is going to trial next month. Meantime, EU regulators have been aggressively enforcing competition rules (Apple’s facing the possibility of up to a $38B fine).

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Decode

Uber swings to a profit as consumers’ gig-economy habits prove sticky

Five-star quarter… Uber shares surged 11% after the ride-hailing and delivery co rolled up with a $1B quarterly profit. Investors cheered the return to profitability (in the previous Q, investing losses and legal woes weighed down Uber’s otherwise lucrative biz). App transactions grew nearly 20% on the year last quarter, while revenue rose 16%, topping expectations. Uber expects transactions to rake in more than $40B this quarter, and forecast that its fledgling advertising business (picture: ads in the app) will top $1B.

  • U-turn: Last year, Uber reported its first annual profit since going public in 2019. It has been tightening its seat belt, in part by trimming its staff and ditching self-driving plans.

Goodbye “Summer20” promo codes… Until recently, gig companies like Uber were spending big on marketing and discounts to win market share. But the era of the “millennial lifestyle subsidy” is over, and gig companies have started to raise prices and reduce freebies. In its pivot to profitability, Uber has hiked prices on rides and delivery (both businesses saw double-digit bookings growth last quarter). Ride-focused Lyft, which saw Q1 revenue jump nearly 30% on the year, reports today.

  • Taco-flation: DoorDash, which has only reported a profit once, said last week that its Q2 revenue jumped as orders spiked 19% on the year. The food-delivery leader has raised its fees in some cities.

  • Grocery-ease: Yesterday Instacart’s reported revenue blew past expectations as the biz doubled down on efforts to boost non-delivery revenue from advertising.

Habits are sticky… Consumers are willing to pay a premium for the gig-economy conveniences they’ve grown to rely on. Ordering delivery or a ride has become the norm, thanks to companies’ heavy investments into customer acquisition. And despite higher prices for those services, some customers are still skipping the subway to shell out $50 for an Uber to the airport.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • TacoHut: Yum! Brands’ quarterly revenue missed as same-stores sales fell at Pizza Hut and KFC but climbed at Taco Bell. The biz said its meal deals are boosting growth as rivals like McDonald’s push promos.

  • Scroll: TikTok plans to scrap its rewards program in the EU after regulators said it could be addictive. The program lets users earn points for gift cards and vouchers by engaging with videos.

  • Soggy: WK Kellogg’s quarterly sales sank to the bottom of the cereal bowl and the Corn Flakes maker bummed on earnings. Its snack-focused sister co Kellanova is reportedly the target of a $30B acquisition.

  • Shade: SunPower shares plunged after the solar panel provider filed for bankruptcy and said it would sell its assets. SunPower racked up losses as high interest rates dimmed demand for panel installations.

  • BothSides: Though former Prez Trump embraced bitcoin, pro-crypto political action committees aren’t just donating to Republicans. Pro-crypto PAC Protect Progress has spent millions to support Dems.

Snack Fact of the Day

Berkshire Hathaway holds more US Treasury bills than the Federal Reserve

Wednesday

  • US consumer-credit report for June

  • Earnings expected from Shopify, Disney, Novo Nordisk, CVS, Aurora Cannabis, Sony, Lyft, Brink’s, Sunoco, Valvoline, Hilton, New York Times, Solo Brands, Ralph Lauren, Robinhood, Energy Transfer, Occidental Petroleum, Warner Bros., Duolingo, Bumble, Allbirds, Zillow, Marathon Oil, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic, Blade Air Mobility, Warner Music, and McKesson

Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Beyond Meat, CVS, Disney, Nvidia, Robinhood, Shopify, Uber, Warner Bros., Warner Music, and Yum Brands

Advertiser's disclosures:
* “In 2023, the entertainment and media (E&M) industry recovered its balance…total global revenue rose 5% to US$2.8 trillion in 2023…”-- PWC Perspectives from the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2024–2028: Seizing growth opportunities in a dynamic ecosystem, July 2024.

** This is a paid advertisement for Elf Labs’ Regulation CF Offering. Please read the offering circular and related risks at elflabs.com.

Start-up investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest in start-ups. Companies seeking startup investment tend to be in earlier stages of development and their business model, products and services may not yet be fully developed, operational or tested in the public marketplace. There is no guarantee that the stated valuation and other terms are accurate or in agreement with the market or industry valuations. Further, investors may receive illiquid and/or restricted stock that may be subject to holding period requirements and/or liquidity concerns.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.